Serbia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2012
- ID: 2299567
- November 2012
- Region: Serbia
- 49 pages
- Business Monitor International
We project Serbian consumer electronics spending will contract by about 1% in US dollar terms in 2012 to US$1.1bn, with macroeconomic headwinds originating from the eurozone having put a brake on faster growth for now. Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe, and stubbornly high unemployment will constrain household spending in the short term, while elevated inflation will impinge on real purchasing power. However, real wages performed better in H211 and outperformed retail sales, which contracted by 14.6% in real terms. Underlying economic growth, rising disposable income and the development of organised retail infrastructure are forecast to drive growth longer-term. Sales of flat-screen TV sets and feature-rich notebook computers will continue to benefit from falling prices and more aggressive vendor and distributor promotion.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Computer Hardware Sales: US$488mn in 2011 to US$446mn in 2012, -9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors and currency movements, but computer penetration is forecast to rise to above 20% by 2016.
- AV Sales: US$422mn in 2011 to US$427mn in 2012, +1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to economic factors with flat-screen TV sets the main growth driver.
- Handset Sales: US$253mn in 2011 to US$276mn in 2012, +9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with demand for advanced phones encouraged by new data applications.
Serbia’s score was 36.0 out of 100.0, which gave it an unchanged eighth place in our latest EUR CE RRR table. BMI expects Serbia to climb up our RRR rankings over time due to the growth potential of its market, particularly given low, but rising PC penetration.
Key Trends & Developments:
- Demand for higher-end models will help support the Serbian handset market in the face of the slowing subscriber growth rate. The smartphone penetration rate is considerably below the 18%
level found in Western European markets, leaving plenty of room for growth. In 2011, demand for more expensive smartphones and high-end feature phones was reported by retailers to hold up fairly well, despite the economic crisis.
- According to the Serbian Ministry for Telecommunications and Information Society, Serbia was due to complete its switchover to digital broadcasting of radio and TV programmes by April 4 2012. After years of delays, the commitment to a deadline should help to put the market for digital TV sets on a more promising trajectory. The government has also announced additional funding to support the transition, including new funds to subsidise set-top box purchases.
- Consumers appear to be better placed than at the start of 2011, despite the economic situation.
Serbia is a smaller PC market than its neighbours Croatia and Slovenia, and less than half the size of Croatia. However, with only around 50% of Serbian households having a computer according to BMI estimates, the market has continued growth potential. Rising disposable incomes and progress towards EU accession are expected to be among the drivers of PC market growth. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Serbia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 7
Serbia Political SWOT 8
Serbia Economic SWOT 8
Serbia Business Environment SWOT 9
Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: CEE Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 13
Consumer Electronics Market 14
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 15
AV Devices 18
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 18
Mobile Handsets 21
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 21
Consumer Electronics Industry 25
Table: Serbia Information & Communications Industry As % Of Gross Added Value Of The Economy (2004-2009) 25
Table: Serbian Manufacturing Industry Structure % Of manufacturing (2004-2009) 25
Table: Serbia ICT Industry – Key Metrics 26
ICT Context 26
Foreign Investment 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 29
Consumer Electronics Market 29
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 30
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Macroeconomic Forecast 34
Table: Serbia – GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Video, Audio & Gaming 39
Mobile Handsets 40
Company Profiles 42
Country Snapshot 43
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 44
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 45
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 46
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 46
BMI Methodology 47
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 47
Electronics Industry 48