Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012

BMI View:

We expect oil production in Gabon to fall to 241,000b/d in 2012 and decline to 234,000 b/d by 2016, as falling output from mature fields sustains a downward trend for what was once the third largest oil producer in Africa. Attempts by the government to improve fiscal incentives and reduce its presence in the country's upstream sector have been undermined by ongoing labour disputes that led to the majority of the country's oil production being shut down for several days in 2011. We do, however,
highlight upside risks to our outlook. A final investment decision on a new refinery would allow Gabon to become an exporter of refined products, while increased deepwater exploration may be enough to raise reserves estimates and offset falling onshore volumes.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon’s oil & gas sector are as follows:

- BMI expects oil production to fall from 241,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, to 234,000b/d in 2016, as fields mature. However, should tensions between labour unions further impact on exploration or production, investments may move elsewhere in the region and thereby accelerate the decline in output.

- Greater rewards stem from the potential that with increased exploration of Gabon's deepwater,
prospects may result in commercial discoveries that would offset falling volumes from existing mature fields; or are significant enough to raise the country's reserves levels. However, at this stage few new drilling campaigns have been announced so BMI has left its oil reserves forecasts unchanged.

- With the existing refinery scheduled to be shut down in 2016, at the same time as the new facility is to come online, Gabon would not only avoid the need to import expensive refined fuels, but would also gain the capacity to become a fuel exporter. However, until a final investment decision (FID) is made on this project, we have chosen not to include it in our forecast despite having already assessed its potential impact.

- Consumption of crude is likely to rise very gradually and from a low base. We expect demand to rise from 14,000b/d in 2012 to 15,000 by 2016.

- BMI estimates that gas production will continue to rise in line with consumption over the next decade. The government's nascent Gas Master Plan, is likely to so increased use of gas as a feedstock for power and according to the government will increase upstream activity to harness non-associated gas resources in the country. However continued investment in the infrastructure to harness and transport gas remains necessary.

At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.01 per barrel (bbl),
falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Gabon Oil And Gas SWOT 6

Global Energy Market Outlook 7

Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 9
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 11

Regional Energy Market Outlook 15

Gabon Energy Market Overview 19
Table: Upstream Projects Database 21

Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Table: Gabon Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Gabon Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23

Oil And Gas Reserves 25

Oil Supply And Demand 26

Gas Supply And Demand 28

Refining And Oil Products Trade 29

Revenues/Import Costs 29

Oil And Gas Infrastructure 30

Oil Refineries 30

Gas Facilities 30

Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36

Gabon Upstream Rewards 36

Gabon Upstream Risks 36

Downstream Scores 37

Competitive Landscape 38

Executive Summary 38
Table: Key Players – Gabon Energy Sector 39

Overview/State Role 40

Licensing And Regulation 40

Government Policy 40

Licensing Rounds 41
Table: Key Upstream Players 42
Table: Key Downstream Players 42

Company Monitor 43

Addax Petroleum 43

Total Gabon – Summary 45

Shell Gabon – Summary 45

Maurel & Prom – Summary 46

Vaalco Energy – Summary 46

Perenco – Summary 47

Eni – Summary 48

Tullow Oil – Summary 48

Petrobras – Summary 48

Panoro – Summary 48

Harvest – Summary 49

Africa – Regional Appendix 50
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2009-2016 50
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2014-2021 50
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2009-2016 51
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2014-2021 52
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2009-2016 52
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2014-2021 53
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2009-2016 53
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2014-2021 54
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2009-2016 55
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2014-2021 55

LNG Net Exports, bcm 2009-2016 56

LNG Net Exports, bcm 2014-2021 56

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 57

Glossary Of Terms 58
Table: Glossary Of Terms 58

Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 60

Ratings Overview 60
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 61

Indicators 61
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 61
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 62

BMI Methodology 64

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 64

Energy Industry 64

Cross checks 65

Sources 65

Company Monitor
Addax Petroleum
Total Gabon – Summary
Shell Gabon – Summary
Maurel & Prom – Summary
Vaalco Energy – Summary
Perenco – Summary
Eni – Summary
Tullow Oil – Summary
Petrobras – Summary
Panoro – Summary
Harvest – Summary