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Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012 - Product Image

Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012

  • Published: November 2012
  • Region: Iraq
  • 89 pages
  • Business Monitor International

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Addax Petroleum – Summary
  • Company Monitor
  • Gazprom Neft – Summary
  • Kogas – Summary
  • MOL – Summary
  • Pearl Petroleum – Summary
  • MORE

BMI View:

Iraq has the greatest potential for oil production growth in the Middle East region. The lofty government-set goals may remain out of reach, thanks to infrastructure issues, political instability,
investment lag and likely conflicts with OPEC, but production could well exceed 6mn barrels per day
(b/d) by 2017 and be heading towards 8mn b/d by 2021. Current forecasts among third parties vary wildly, with no close consensus likely until IOCs bring key projects nearer to completion.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq’s oil and gas sector:

- Unappealing licensing terms, regulatory uncertainty and ongoing security concerns continue to undermine the development of Iraq’s post-war oil industry. Baghdad’s last licensing round drew just three successful bids. Without improved terms and increased international oil company
(IOC) interest, Iraq will find it very difficult to meet its extremely ambitious oil production target of 11mn b/d by 2020.

- Iraqi crude oil production in August 2012 reached its highest level in more than three decades at 3.07mn b/d. Increased shipments from the southern ports also lifted READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT Analysis 9

Iraq Oil and Gas SWOT 9

Global Energy Market Outlook 10

Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 10
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 12
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 14

Regional Energy Market Outlook 18

Iraq Energy Market Overview 25
Table: Upstream Projects Database 26

Industry Forecast Scenario 28
Table: Iraq Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 28
Table: Iraq Oil & Gas – Long Term Forecast, 2014 - 2021 29

Oil And Gas Reserves 30

Oil Supply And Demand 31

Gas Supply And Demand 32

LNG 33

Refining And Oil Products Trade 33

Revenues/Import Costs 34

Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 34

Oil And Gas Infrastructure 35

Oil Refineries 35
Table: Refineries In Iraq 37

Oil Terminals/Ports 37

Oil Pipelines 38

LNG Terminals 39

Gas Pipelines 39

Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings 41
Table: Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 43

Table; Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 43

Iraq Upstream Rating – Overview 44

Iraq Upstream Rating – Rewards 44

Iraq Upstream Rating – Risks 44

Iraq Downstream Rating – Overview 44

Competitive Landscape 45

Executive Summary 45

Overview/State Role 46

Government Policy 46

Hydrocarbons Law 48

Licensing Rounds 50
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009) 51
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009) 53
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010) 55

International Energy Relations 57

Company Monitor 59

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – Summary 59

Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 60

Addax Petroleum – Summary 62

Genel Energy – Summary 62

RAK/DNO International – Summary 63

Heritage Oil – Summary 63

Gulf Keystone Petroleum – Summary 64

BP – Summary 64

Kogas – Summary 65

Eni – Summary 66

ExxonMobil – Summary 66

Lukoil – Summary 68

Statoil – Summary 68

Gazprom Neft – Summary 68

MOL – Summary 69

Chevron – Summary 69

Total – Summary 70

Pearl Petroleum – Summary 70

Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) – Summary 71

Marathon Oil – Summary 71

Murphy Oil – Summary 71

Repsol – Summary 71

Others – Summary 71

Oil Services Companies – Summary 74

Middle East – Regional Appendix 75
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 75
Table: Oil Consumption, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 75
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 76
Table: Oil Production, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 76

Table : Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 76
Table: Refining Capacity, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 77
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm) 77
Table: Gas Consumption, 2014-2021 (bcm) 78
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm) 78
Table: Gas Production, 2014-2021 (bcm) 79
Table: Net LNG Exports, 2009-2016 (bcm) 79
Table: Net LNG Exports, 2014-2021 (bcm) 79

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 80

Glossary Of Terms 81
Table: Glossary Of Terms 81

Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 83

Ratings Overview 83
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 84

Indicators 85
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 85
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 86

BMI Methodology 87

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 87

Energy Industry 87

Cross checks 88

Sources 88

Company Monitor
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – Summary
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
Addax Petroleum – Summary
Genel Energy – Summary
RAK/DNO International – Summary
Heritage Oil – Summary
Gulf Keystone Petroleum – Summary
BP – Summary
Kogas – Summary
Eni – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Lukoil – Summary
Statoil – Summary
Gazprom Neft – Summary
MOL – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Total – Summary
Pearl Petroleum – Summary
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) – Summary
Marathon Oil – Summary
Murphy Oil – Summary
Repsol – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil Services Companies – Summary

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