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Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2313608
  • November 2012
  • Region: Pakistan
  • 70 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View:

The 2012 monsoon season was relatively kind to Pakistan’s farmers, especially in comparison with the devastating floods of 2010. Although localised flooding caused severe destruction in parts of Sindh and Balochistan, the main breadbasket region of Punjab enjoyed late rains after a dry start to the season, improving the prospects of rice, corn and cotton in particular.

Key Forecasts:

- Corn production to 2016/17: up 30.0% to 5.6mn tonnes. Continually improving yields and high prices on world markets will support an impressive increase in corn production.

- Cotton consumption to 2016/17: up 23.2% to 12.5mn tonnes. Demand for cotton will surge in the early years of our forecast as the EU lifts tariffs for a year, before falling back to steady yearon-
year (y-o-y) growth.

- Rice production to 2016/17: up 16.5% to 7.3mn tonnes. Pakistan will retain its place among the world’s most important exporters of the commodity as its producers look to expand into new markets.

- 2013 real GDP growth: 4.0%. Up from 3.7% y-o-y in 2012.

- Consumer price inflation: 12.4% in 2013 (up from 11% y-o-y in 2012).

Industry Outlook:

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Pakistan Agricultural SWOT 6

Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 7

Supply & Demand Analysis 8

Pakistan Rice Outlook 8
Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 9
Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 10

Pakistan Sugar Outlook 11
Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 13

Pakistan Grains Outlook 14
Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18

Pakistan Cotton Outlook 19
Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 21

Commodity Price Analysis 22

Monthly Softs Update 22

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 22

Coffee: Temporary Rally 24

Cotton: Against Resistance 26

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 27

Sugar: Surging Supply 29
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 31

Monthly Grains Update 32

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 33

Corn: Looking The Weakest 35

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 36

Rice: A Strong Performer 38
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 39

Upstream Analysis 40

Asia Machinery Outlook 40

Asia Fertiliser Outlook 44

Asia GM Outlook 48
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops 51

Downstream Analysis 52

Food 52

Food Consumption 52
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 53

Canned Food 53
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 54

Drink 54

Hot Drinks 54
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 55

Alcoholic Drinks 56
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 57

Soft Drinks 57
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 59

Mass Grocery Retail 60
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 61
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown, % 61

Trade 62
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 62

Country Snapshot 63
Table: Pakistan’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 64
Table: Pakistan’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 65
Table: Pakistan’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 66
Table: Pakistan’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 66

Our Forecast Modelling

67

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67

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