Russia Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

Despite the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact over two decades ago, Russia remains an important international actor both in the Eurasian region and in the world at large. The country retains some of the world’s biggest armed forces, and has the second-largest nuclear arsenal. BMI’s Q1 Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic challenges together with its current and future defence posture. The report concludes that, despite some budgetary challenges, Russia’s military establishment is moving forward with the comprehensive modernisation of its armed forces, with the delivery of new equipment across all three services. The intention of the armed forces’ modernisation programme is to make the country more agile and adaptable in meeting new threats both at home and abroad.

As of Q113, Russia is continuing to procure new equipment and to gradually professionalise its army.

One of the most ambitious procurement programmes is occurring in the country’s air force, which is purchasing hundreds of new warplanes, special mission aircraft and freighters over the next decade, with this force modernisation expected to conclude by 2020. In addition, the Russian army is planning to replace a wide range of its current armoured vehicle fleet with a family of modular platforms that can be configured according to the missions that they are to perform. Moreover, the navy is acquiring new vessels, although of all of Russia’s armed services, the navy seems to have the least ambitious procurement plans in terms of platform acquisition. Other important changes to the Russian military that have been outlined in BMI’s Q113 report include the planned activation of a cyber warfare unit in the Russian army to protect the country against cyber attacks, and to wage cyber warfare.

BMI has made a number of changes to its views since the publication of the Q412 report:

- A full description of the orders of battle for Russia’s Strategic Missile Force and for the Russian Air Force.

- Full equipment lists for the Russian Strategic Missile Force and for the Air Force.

- Details of all major procurement programmes planned and ongoing in the Russian Strategic Missile Force and Russian Air Force. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Russia Security SWOT 6

Russia Defence Industry SWOT 7

Russia Political SWOT 8

Russia Economic SWOT 8

Russia Business Environment SWOT 9

Global Political Outlook 10

Europe Security Overview 15

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 15

Europe In A Global Context 15

Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 15

The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 15

EU Expansion 16

NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 16

Post-Qadhafi Libya 17

Relations With Russia 18

Relations With Turkey 18

The Balkans 19

Organised Crime 19

Islamist Terrorism 20

The Greater Black Sea Region 20

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 21

Security Risk Analysis 23

BMI’s Security Ratings 23
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 23
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 24

Political Overview 26

Radicalisation Risks In Tatarstan: Key Implications 26

Domestic Politics 28

Long-Term Political Outlook 30

Russia Security Overview 37

External Security Situation 37

United States 37

The Western Front 40

Central Asia 42

China 44

Japan 45

The New ‘Great Game’ In The Arctic 46

Beyond Eurasia 46

Russia At Risk Of Losing Great Power Status 49

Russia’s Military Doctrine To 2020 51

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: New Global Force Or Paper Tiger? 53

Internal Security 58

Armed Forces 64

Armed Forces 64

Order of Battle 66

Defence Modernisation 71

International Deployments 75
Table: Russia’s Foreign Deployments 2008 77

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 77

Market Overview 81

Arms Trade Overview 82

Procurement Trends And Developments: 83

Industry Forecast Scenario 86

Armed Forces 86
Table: Russia’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 86
Table: Russia’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 86

Defence Expenditure 86
Table: Russia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 87
Table: Russia's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 88

Defence Trade 88
Table: Russia’s Defence Exports, 2010-2017(US$mn) 88
Table: Russia’s Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 89
Table: Russia’s Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 89

Macroeconomic Outlook 90
Table: Russia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 93

Company Profiles 94

Irkut 94

Kazan Helicopters 95

Rosoboronexport State Corporation 96

Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG) 97

Sukhoi Aviation Corporation 99

United Aircraft Corporation 01

Uralvagonzavod 02

BMI Methodology 103

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 03

Defence Industry 03

City Terrorism Rating 04
Table: Methodology 06

Sources 07

Irkut
Kazan Helicopters
Rosoboronexport State Corporation
Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG)
Sukhoi Aviation Corporation
United Aircraft Corporation
Uralvagonzavod