Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

BMI View:

We forecast another fall in Saudi Arabia’s wheat output for 2012/13, in line with the country’s strategy to phase out grains production in the next decade. We believe Saudi Arabia will find sufficient grain supply from the Black Sea region and the EU to supply its food processing industry in the coming years. Recent spikes in feed prices turned us more cautious on margins for dairy and livestock producers in the country, especially the ones that import inputs from abroad. A wave of new investments in poultry production capacity is likely to support strong growth in the coming years and reduce the country’s production deficit.

Key Forecasts:

- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: -48.5% to 574,200 tonnes. Wheat production will continue to decrease in the coming years on the back of the government’s programme to phase out production.

- Milk production growth to 2016/17: 27.2% to 2.4mn tonnes. Milk production will accelerate on the back of high milk prices and rising demand.

- Poultry consumption growth to 2016/17 13.9% to 1.6mn tonnes. This growth will be linked to high population growth and rising personal incomes.

- 2013 real GDP growth: 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 5.2% in 2012. Projected to average 3.3% from 2012 to 2017.

- 2013 consumer price inflation: 5.0% average, down from 5.0% 2012.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.9% y-o-y increase to US$2.2bn in 2012/13,
forecast to increase by 3.9% on average per year between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

Key Industry Developments:

Saudi Arabia’s grain industry is undergoing a major shake-up. The country switched in 2008 from a strategy of self-sufficiency in wheat to the gradual elimination of all water-intensive crops, including wheat, by 2016. Wheat production has fallen on average by 12.0% annually since 2007/08, and the production deficit has increased by 30.3%. We forecast output to decrease by 10.4% to 1.0mn tonnes in 2012/13. As a result, wheat imports have picked up since 2008, and are expected to reach 2.3mn tonnes in 2012/13, up 80.4% from the level seen in 2008/09. We expect imports to increase further, as the government just announced its intention to import soft wheat in addition to the hard variety it currently imports, and to increase the use of feed wheat.

Saudi Arabia is almost entirely dependent on imports for feed, which makes production costs fluctuate with international grain prices. Recent spikes in grains prices could affect the country’s livestock producers’ margins in the short term and put some downside risks to our production forecasts in 2013.

Saudi Arabia’s three main poultry farms, along with other medium-size poultry farms, are planning expansion projects for their production facilities. This is likely to increase domestic broiler meat production by more than 170,000 tonnes in 2012/13 and will support strong growth in the coming years.

Al-Watania Poultry Farm, the largest poultry producer in the kingdom, is engaged in a major expansion plan to increase its annual broiler meat production from 161,280 tonnes in 2010 to 360,000 tonnes by 2014. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Saudi Arabia Agricultural SWOT 7

Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT 8

Supply & Demand Analysis 9

Saudi Arabia Livestock Outlook 9
Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Saudi Arabia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 12

Saudi Arabia Grains Outlook 13
Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 13
Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Saudi Arabia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Saudi Arabia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Saudi Arabia Barley Consumption, 2008-2012 18

Saudi Arabia Dairy Outlook 19
Table: Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Cheese Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 23
Table: Saudi Arabia Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 23
Table: Saudi Arabia Cheese Consumption, 2008-2012 23

Company Profiles 25

Saudi Dairy And Food Stuffs Company 25

Commodity Price Analysis 31

Monthly Softs Update 31

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 31

Coffee: Temporary Rally 33

Cotton: Against Resistance 35

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 36

Sugar: Surging Supply 38
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 40

Monthly Grains Update 41

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 42

Corn: Looking The Weakest 44

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 45

Rice: A Strong Performer 47
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 48

Downstream Analysis 49

Food 49

Food Consumption 49
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 49

Confectionery 50
Table: Confectionery Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 50

Drink 51

Soft Drinks 51
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 52

Alcoholic Drinks 52

Hot Drinks 53
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 53

Mass Grocery Retail 54
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 55
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format 55

Trade 55
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 56

Country Snapshot 57
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 58
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 59
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 60
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 60

Our Forecast Modelling

61

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61

Saudi Dairy And Food Stuffs Company