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South Africa Agribusiness Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

South Africa Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • Published: November 2012
  • Region: Africa, South Africa
  • 81 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View:

The grain market in South Africa is still tight on the back of an average 2011/12 harvest; in our view, relief to food prices will not come before the start of the new season in May 2013. The livestock sector is experiencing difficulties because of the recent surge in grains prices, and the country’s main poultry companies have posted falls in earnings in recent quarters. We believe this situation is temporary and see potential for these companies to recover margins in the coming quarters as feed prices moderate.

For sugar, we are still positive about growth opportunities in the sector with regard to both production and consumption.

Key Forecasts:

- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 15.7% to 2.2mn tonnes. This is based on our view that,
over the long term, macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuel, will have a positive impact on sugar production levels.

- Poultry consumption growth to 2016/17: 23.8% to 2.0mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominately chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

South Africa Agricultural SWOT 7

South Africa Business Environment SWOT 8

Supply & Demand Analysis 9

South Africa Sugar Outlook 9
Table: South Africa Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 9
Table: South Africa Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 11

South Africa Rice Outlook 12
Table: South Africa Rice Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: South Africa Rice Consumption, 2008-2012 13

South Africa Grains Outlook 14
Table: South Africa Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 15
Table: South Africa Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 15
Table: South Africa Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: South Africa Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: South Africa Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: South Africa Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18

South Africa Livestock Outlook 19
Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 21
Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 21
Table: South Africa Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Table: South Africa Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Table: South Africa Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22

Commodity Price Analysis 24

Monthly Softs Update 24

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 24

Coffee: Temporary Rally 26

Cotton: Against Resistance 28

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 29

Sugar: Surging Supply 31
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 33

Monthly Grains Update 34

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 35

Corn: Looking The Weakest 37

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 38

Rice: A Strong Performer 40
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 41

Upstream Analysis 42

Africa GM Outlook 42
Table: Select Countries – Global Corn Yield Rank For 2012/13 Season 43

Africa Machinery Outlook 48

Africa Fertiliser Outlook 51

Downstream Analysis 55

Food 55

Food Consumption 55
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 55

Confectionery 56
Table: Confectionery, 2009-2016 56

Prepared Food 57
Table: Canned Food, 2009-2016 57
Table: Meat, 2009-2016 58
Table: Jams & Jellies, 2009-2016 59

Oils & Fats 60
Table: Oils & Fats, 2009-2016 60

Dairy 62
Table: Dairy, 2009-2016 62

Drink 65

Alcoholic Drinks 65
Table: Alcohol Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 66
Table: Beer, 2009-2016 66
Table: Wine, 2009-2016 67

Soft Drinks 67
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 68

Hot Drinks 72
Table: Hot Drinks, 2009-2016 72

Mass Grocery Retail 72
Table: MGR Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 73

Trade 73
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 73

Country Snapshot 74
Table: South Africa’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 75
Table: South Africa’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 76
Table: South Africa’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 77
Table: South Africa’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 77

Our Forecast Modelling

78

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 78

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