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Thailand Agribusiness Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Thailand Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • Published: November 2012
  • Region: Thailand
  • 84 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View:

Thailand will maintain its status of key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years.

However, the government’s interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thai’s production compared to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directly gain from the rice guarantee buyback-programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of these policies in enhancing Thai food-producing efficiency as well as boosting the country’s export competitiveness. The programme appears to be untenable in the medium term, and we see growing risks for Thailand to partially cut the subsidies or drop the policy. This would have major impacts on exports and international rice prices.

Key Forecasts:

- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 30.3 % to 1.9mn tonnes. This growth will largely be due to increased private investment in the sector. The lift of an eight-year EU ban on uncooked imports in April 2012 will allow imports of Thai-produced poultry and other food products and give the industry more impetus to expand production.

- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 31.8% to 13.4mn tonnes. READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 8

Thailand Agricultural SWOT 8

Thailand Business Environment SWOT 9

Supply & Demand Analysis 10

Thailand Grains Outlook 10
Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 11

Thailand Rice Outlook 12
Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18

Thailand Sugar Outlook 19
Table: Thailand Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Thailand Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 24

Thailand Dairy Outlook 25
Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 26
Table: Thailand Butter Consumption, 2012-2017 26
Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 30
Table: Thailand Butter Consumption, 2008-2012 30

Thailand Livestock Outlook 30
Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 31
Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 31
Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 31
Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 34
Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 34
Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 34

Commodity Price Analysis 36

Monthly Softs Update 36

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 36

Coffee: Temporary Rally 38

Cotton: Against Resistance 40

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 41

Sugar: Surging Supply 43
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 45

Monthly Grains Update 46

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 47

Corn: Looking The Weakest 49

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 50

Rice: A Strong Performer 52
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 53

Upstream Analysis 54

Asia Machinery Outlook 54

Asia Fertiliser Outlook 58

Asia GM Outlook 62
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops 65

Downstream Analysis 66

Food 66

Food Consumption 66
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 66

Canned Food 67
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 68

Confectionery 68
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 68

Drink 69

Alcoholic Drinks 69
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 71

Soft Drinks 71
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 72

Hot Drinks 73
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 73

Mass Grocery Retail 73
Table: MGR Sales Value By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 75

Trade 75
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 76

Country Snapshot 77
Table: Thailand’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 78
Table: Thailand’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Thailand’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Thailand’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 80

Our Forecast Modelling

81

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 81

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