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Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2313617
  • November 2012
  • Region: Ethiopia
  • 65 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View:

Unlike other parts of North Africa, Ethiopia saw some mild declines in grain output in 2011/12, largely on the back of delayed rains. The country’s staple corn crop was particularly affected.

Although this will put food security back in the spotlight, we see potential for production improvements in 2012/13. This, combined with our view for grain prices to moderate in the coming months, leads us to expect food security concerns to soften somewhat. Elsewhere, we believe the sugar sector shows potential for growth, largely a function of private investment over the coming years. Finally, we expect to see only small growth in production for the country’s coffee sector, as lower average prices discourage farmers from maximising production. We believe the country will remain a key target for land acquisitions in the coming years as Gulf countries look to purchase land to ease their own food security concerns.

Key Views:

- Corn production growth in 2012/13: 11.0% to 4.9mn tonnes. This will largely be due to high prices during the planting season.

- Coffee consumption growth to 2017: 9.3% to 2.0mn tonnes. Economic grains will improve READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 8

Ethiopia Agriculture SWOT 8

Ethiopia Business Environment SWOT 9

Supply & Demand Analysis 10

Ethiopia Sugar Outlook 10
Table: Ethiopia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Ethiopia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 15

Ethiopia Grains Outlook 15
Table: Ethiopia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: Ethiopia Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: Ethiopia Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 17
Table: Ethiopia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Ethiopia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Ethiopia Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18

Ethiopia Coffee Outlook 19
Table: Ethiopia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Ethiopia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 26

Commodity Price Analysis 27

Monthly Softs Update 27

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 27

Coffee: Temporary Rally 29

Cotton: Against Resistance 31

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 32

Sugar: Surging Supply 34
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 36

Monthly Grains Update 37

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 38

Corn: Looking The Weakest 40

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 41

Rice: A Strong Performer 43
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 44

Upstream Analysis 45

Africa GM Outlook 45
Table: Select Countries – Global Corn Yield Rank For 2012/13 Season 46

Africa Machinery Outlook 51

Africa Fertiliser Outlook 54

Country Snapshot 58
Table: Ethiopia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 59
Table: Ethiopia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 60
Table: Ethiopia’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 61
Table: Ethiopia’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 61

Our Forecast Modelling

62

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 62

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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