Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 59
BMI View:
According to the agriculture ministry, Bangladesh loses about 80,000 hectares of arable land owing to the impact of climate change, such as through droughts, salinity and floods. Indeed, we view Bangladesh’s extreme weather as a major risk to our outlook for the country’s agriculture sector. In fact,
as crop cultivation is gradually pushed southward due to climate changes, a key factor for survival will be adapting crop varieties to different cultivation environments.
Key Forecasts:
- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 40.9% to 1.6mn tonnes. The main driver is an improvement in yields. We note that in Bangladesh, wheat cultivation remains a preferred option for non-irrigated land given the low farm input use (fertiliser, insecticides and labour).
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: -45.6% to 68,000 tonnes by 2016/17. With farmers increasingly planting more profitable cash crops such as cotton, we do not foresee the trend of declining sugar production to reverse any time soon.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 17.2% to 232,000 tonnes. Better economic conditions and higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is also expected to support the recovery of the sector.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 6.6%, from 4.9% in 2012. Predicted to average 6.3% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) average, from 10.8% y-o-y in 2012. Predicted to average 6.4% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 real lending rates: 7.8% average, from 2.8% in 2012. Predicted to average 6.0% from 2012 to 2017.
Key Developments:
The International Rice Research Institute has recently found that large quantities of Bangladesh-grown rice have higher-than-usual levels of arsenic, as there are many parts of Bangladesh where water with high arsenic levels is used in rice cultivation. Through breeding new rice varieties and helping farmers to adopt improved crop management strategies, the International Rice Research Institute is working with farmers on the ground in developing rice production techniques that reduce arsenic intake.
In September 2012, the government of Bangladesh issued a statement to allow for a resumption of sugar exports after a two-year ban. Private companies have reportedly doubled sugar production, thus boosting the domestic surplus of the sweetener. Coupled with the fact that state-run mills also had sufficient sugar in stock, there is an estimated total surplus of 2.0mn tonnes available for exports. Having said that, we maintain our long term view for a continual decline of sugar production in Bangladesh on the back of crop conversion and lack of government support for the sector.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Bangladesh Agriculture SWOT 7
Bangladesh Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply & Demand Analysis 9
Bangladesh Grains Outlook 9
Table: Bangladesh Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Bangladesh Corn Production, 2012-2017 10
Table: Bangladesh Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 11
Table: Bangladesh Corn Production, 2008-2012 11
Bangladesh Sugar Outlook 12
Table: Bangladesh Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: Bangladesh Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 13
Bangladesh Rice Outlook 13
Table: Bangladesh Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Bangladesh Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 16
Bangladesh Livestock Outlook 18
Table: Bangladesh Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: Bangladesh Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: Bangladesh Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 20
Table: Bangladesh Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 20
Commodity Price Analysis 22
Monthly Softs Update 22
Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 22
Coffee: Temporary Rally 24
Cotton: Against Resistance 26
Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 27
Sugar: Surging Supply 29
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 31
Monthly Grains Update 32
Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 33
Corn: Looking The Weakest 35
Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 36
Rice: A Strong Performer 38
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 39
Upstream Analysis 40
Asia Machinery Outlook 40
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 44
Asia GM Outlook 48
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops 51
Country Snapshot 52
Table: Bangladesh’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 53
Table: Bangladesh’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 54
Table: Bangladesh’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 55
Table: Bangladesh’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 55
Our Forecast Modelling
56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 56
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