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India Agribusiness Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

India Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • Published: November 2012
  • Region: India
  • 95 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View:

Although a precarious monsoon in the first two months of the rainy season put pressure on some of India’s key crops, we believe the impact on final production will be limited. Output of rice and sugar will remain above averages, while wheat should showcase a bumper year, as some of its major growing regions were left unscathed from the drought. As we expected, India has not implemented export restrictions despite concerns over food prices. In the longer term, India’s vulnerability to exceptional weather phenomenon should increase due to climate change effects and serious water shortages.

However, the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and should be able to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops.

Key Forecasts:

- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 12.3% to 29.2mn tonnes. Strong growth will be driven by rising domestic demand that, in turn, will provide production incentives.

- Palm oil consumption growth to 2017: 35.1% to 10.0mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.

- READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 8

India Agricultural SWOT 8

India Business Environment SWOT 9

Supply & Demand Analysis 10

India Grains Outlook 10
Table: India Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 11
Table: India Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 11
Table: India Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
Table: India Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 15

India Dairy Outlook 15
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: India Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 16
Table: India Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 19
Table: India Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 20

India Sugar Outlook 20
Table: India Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 21
Table: India Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 25

India Livestock Outlook 26
Table: India Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 27
Table: India Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 27
Table: India Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 28
Table: India Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 28

India Rice Outlook 29
Table: India Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 30
Table: India Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 33

India Coffee Outlook 34
Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 35
Table: India Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 39

India Palm Oil Outlook 40
Table: India – Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 40
Table: India – Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 42

Commodity Price Analysis 44

Monthly Softs Update 44

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 44

Coffee: Temporary Rally 46

Cotton: Against Resistance 48

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 49

Sugar: Surging Supply 51
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 53

Monthly Grains Update 54

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 55

Corn: Looking The Weakest 57

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 58

Rice: A Strong Performer 60
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 61

Upstream Analysis 62

Asia Machinery Outlook 62

Asia Fertiliser Outlook 66

Asia GM Outlook 70
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops 73

Downstream Analysis 74

Food 74

Food Consumption 74
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 75

Confectionery 76
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 77

Drink 77

Hot Drinks 77
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical & Forecasts, 2009-2016 79

Alcoholic Drinks 79
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 81

Soft Drinks 82
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 83

Mass Grocery Retail 84
Table: MGR Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 86
Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format – 2011 86

Trade 86
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 87

Country Snapshot 88
Table: India’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 89
Table: India’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 90
Table: India’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 91
Table: India’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 91

Our Forecast Modelling

92

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 92

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