India Retail Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 90
The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on India's economic outlook of soaring twin deficits in the fiscal and current accounts.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the risk of a prolonged deflationary slump in the eurozone on the Indian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
India comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms for risk.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 107.9% between 2013 and 2017, from US$34.79bn to US$72.33bn as India's emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services, and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the removal of foreign direct investment (FDI)
restrictions in multi-brand retail announced in September 2012.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- A modest growth print of 5.3% y-o-y in Q4 FY2011/12 (Jan-Mar) and soaring twin deficits in the fiscal and current accounts have convinced consensus to de-rate dramatically India's economic outlook, with most calling for much weaker headline expansion in the current fiscal year. While the current state of play appears dire, BMI still sees sufficient evidence to suggest that the investment cycle has bottomed out, and that economic growth will re-accelerate within a couple of quarters. Our core view is that real GDP growth will come in at an improved 6.9% in FY2012/13, up from a nine-year low of 6.5% in the previous fiscal year.
- Household spending will represent one area of relative weakness over the coming fiscal year.
Having ramped up expenditure in recent years, BMI believes that the current bout of rupee weakness will have a lingering impact on the Indian consumer. We see private consumption growth falling to 5.2% in FY2012/13 from 5.5% in the previous fiscal year.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
India Retail Business Environment SWOT 6
India Political SWOT 7
India Economic SWOT 8
Market Overview 9
Current Trends 10
Key Players 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Consumer Outlook 19
Retail Growth Outlook 21
Table: India Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017 22
Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f 23
Macroeconomic Outlook 24
Regional Retail Outlook 28
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook 28
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn) 28
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%) 29
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn) 31
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017 37
Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings 38
India's Retail Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Limits To Potential Returns 39
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 40
Mass Grocery Retail 41
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 41
Market Overview 42
Leading MGR Players 43
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011 45
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$mn), 2005-2011 45
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (INRmn), 2005-2011 46
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) – Historical Data & Forecasts 46
Industry Forecast Scenario 46
Table: MGR Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 48
Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format – 2011 48
Industry Developments 49
Consumer Electronics 53
India Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 53
India Electronics Industry SWOT 54
Market Overview 55
Computers 55
Table: Computer Sales, 2009-2016 55
Drivers 56
Netbooks 58
Tablets 59
Low-Cost PCs 60
Table: Total Desktop Sales 60
AV 61
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 61
Mobile Handsets 65
Table: Mobile Communications: Demand, 2009-2016 65
Industry Forecast Scenario 70
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 71
Industry Developments 71
Government Authority 73
Automotives 75
India Autos Industry SWOT 75
Industry Forecast 76
Production And Sales 76
Table: Autos Sales And Production 76
Trade 77
Table: Autos Trade 77
Industry Developments 77
Passenger Cars 79
Production And Sales 79
Table: Autos - Passenger Cars 79
Company Developments 81
Demographic Outlook 83
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 84
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 85
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 86
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 86
BMI Methodology 87
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 87
Sources 88
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