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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • Published: November 2012
  • Region: Indonesia
  • 87 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View:

Overall, we hold an optimistic outlook towards the country’s agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, palm oil and cocoa. However, while we believe that the government’s goal of self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 is attainable, we are less confident about other commodities such as sugar and corn. We also highlight that the country’s aim to become the second largest coffee producer in the world by 2015 is unrealistic. Much of our scepticism is owing to the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers.

We believe that the shift from raw commodity exports to refined exports (especially for palm oil and cocoa) will warrant more public and private investment in order for the raw inputs industry to keep pace with downstream industries.

Key Forecasts:

- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 61.2% to 3.0mn tonnes. This expansion will be mainly due to improved yields and higher sucrose content in cane. Despite the production improvement,
we believe the country will likely remain, along with India and the EU, one of the world’s READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 8

Indonesia Agricultural SWOT 8

Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 9

Supply & Demand Analysis 10

Indonesia Coffee Outlook 10
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Indonesia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 12

Indonesia Palm Oil Outlook 13
Table: Indonesia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 15
Table: Indonesia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18

Indonesia Livestock Outlook 19
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Indonesia Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 20
Table: Indonesia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 21
Table: Indonesia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 21
Table: Indonesia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 21

Indonesia Sugar Outlook 22
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 23
Table: Indonesia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 24

Indonesia Cocoa Outlook 25
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 25
Table: Indonesia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 28

Indonesia Grains Outlook 29
Table: Indonesia Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 29
Table: Indonesia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 30

Indonesia Rice Outlook 31
Table: Indonesia Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 32
Table: Indonesia Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 34

Commodity Price Analysis 35

Monthly Softs Update 35

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 35

Coffee: Temporary Rally 37

Cotton: Against Resistance 39

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 40

Sugar: Surging Supply 42
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 44

Monthly Grains Update 45

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 46

Corn: Looking The Weakest 48

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 49

Rice: A Strong Performer 51
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 52

Upstream Analysis 53

Asia Machinery Outlook 53

Asia Fertiliser Outlook 57

Asia GM Outlook 61
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops 64

Downstream Analysis 65

Food 65

Food Consumption 65
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 66

Canned Food 66
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016 67

Confectionery 67
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 69

Trade 69
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 70

Drink 71

Hot Drinks 71
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 72

Alcoholic Drinks 72
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 73

Soft Drinks 73
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 76

Mass Grocery Retail 77
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009-2016 78
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) 79

Country Snapshot 80
Table: Indonesia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 81
Table: Indonesia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 82
Table: Indonesia’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 83
Table: Indonesia’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 83

Our Forecast Modelling

84

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 84

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