Syria Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 69
Syria remains an important actor in the Middle East and Mediterranean regions. It plays a key part in the ongoing dispute between Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories, and in the intra-religious Sunni-
Shi’a Muslim tensions in the region.
BMI’s Syria Defence & Security report for Q113 examines the country’s place in these regions, and the wider world, while also examining the country’s armed forces and its military procurements. The report’s conclusion remains that while Syria continues to retain robust and relatively well-equipped armed forces,
the ability of these armed forces to bring the current rebellion against the rule of President Bashar al-
Assad under control remains is in serious doubt. The report also posits that realistic development of the Syrian economy and its political structures is all but impossible while both the internal violence continues and Assad's regime remains in power. The latter prospect will keep Syria largely isolated from the international community and perceived as a pariah state.
The report examines the key risks facing Syria. The country can now be considered as being in a state of civil war. Syria is becoming increasingly ostracised by the international community as a result of Assad’s brutal crackdown against his opponents. Syria’s neighbours, notably Turkey, are becoming impatient with Assad’s actions, particularly over cross-border military action that has targeted Turkish border areas;
others have also been involved in military action as a result of the regional fallout from the conflict.
Finally, Assad has been able to both court and dismiss international diplomatic efforts to bring the crisis to a close. This has bought Assad short-term gains at home to continue his crackdown, but in the long term this may make him increasingly isolated amid growing international support for some form of military action to be taken against the Syrian government.
Since BMI’s publication of its last Syria Defence & Security report, a number of changes have been made, including the addition of the following discussions:
- A full order of battle and equipment list for the Syrian Army, air force and navy.
- Details of recent combat activity regarding Syria’s ongoing civil war, and details of supplies of materiel to the belligerents.
- Descriptions of modernisation programmes currently being performed by the Syrian armed forces.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Syria Security SWOT 6
Syria Defence Industry SWOT 7
Syria Political SWOT 7
Syria Economic SWOT 8
Syria Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Political Outlook 9
Middle East Security Overview 14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 14
The Middle East In A Global Context 14
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 14
Regional Power Dynamics 24
Nuclear Proliferation 27
External Powers 28
Scenarios For The Middle East 30
Scenario Three: Political Liberalisation Takes Hold 31
Security Risk Ratings 32
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 32
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 33
Political Overview 34
Political Risk Analysis 34
Long-Term Political Outlook 38
Foreign Relations 41
External Pressure Mounting On Damascus 41
Syria Security Overview 44
Internal Security Situation 44
External Security Situation 46
Armed Forces And Government Spending 49
Defence Decision Making 49
Grand Strategy 49
Order of Battle 49
Defence Modernisation 54
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 56
Market Overview 59
Arms Trade Overview 59
Industry Forecast Scenario 61
Armed Forces 61
Table: Syria’s Armed Forces, 2001-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 61
Table: Syria’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 61
Defence Expenditure 62
Table: Syria’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 62
Table: Syria’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 63
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 63
Macroeconomic Outlook 64
Table: Syria – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 66
BMI Methodology 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67
Defence Industry 67
Sources 68
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