Uganda Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2320965
  • November 2012
  • Region: Uganda
  • 61 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View:

The Ugandan coffee sector remains on track for moderate growth over the short term,
although we see potential for a slowdown over the longer term owing to our expectation of lower average prices in 2013. Strong yields are likely to enable the sector to maintain production growth even with the possibility that farmers will have less to spend on fertilisers. Like the rest of Southern Africa, the country’s food security situation is expected to remain fairly stable through the rest of 2012 as supply comes online from the country’s main corn harvest. Although we expect local prices to remain elevated by historical standards, we believe the country will remain a net corn importer over the long term,
although it will not challenge the supremacy of Zambia and South Africa in the export market.

Key Views:

- Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 13.0% to 3.8mn tonnes. The Uganda Coffee Production Campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees; this is expected to boost yields over our forecast period. Also, high coffee prices will encourage greater fertiliser use.

- Corn consumption growth to 2016: 15.9% to 1.4mn tonnes. Growth READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Uganda Agricultural SWOT 7

Uganda Business Environment SWOT 8

Supply & Demand Analysis 9

Uganda Grains 9
Table: Uganda Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Uganda Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 11

Uganda Coffee Outlook 11
Table: Uganda Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: Uganda Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14

Commodity Price Analysis 15

Monthly Softs Update 15

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 15

Coffee: Temporary Rally 17

Cotton: Against Resistance 19

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 20

Sugar: Surging Supply 22
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 24

Monthly Grains Update 25

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 26

Corn: Looking The Weakest 28

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 29

Rice: A Strong Performer 31
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 32

Upstream Analysis 33

Africa GM Outlook 33
Table: Select Countries – Global Corn Yield Rank For 2012/13 Season 34

Africa Machinery Outlook 39

Africa Fertiliser Outlook 42

Downstream Analysis 46

Food 46
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 47
Table: Sugar Confectionery, 2009-2016 48

Drink 49

Beer 49
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 49

Soft Drinks 50
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks, 2009-2016 50

Hot Drinks 51
Table: Tea, 2009-2016 51

Mass Grocery Retail 52
Table: Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 53

Country Snapshot 54
Table: Uganda’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 55
Table: Uganda’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 56
Table: Uganda’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 57
Table: Uganda’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 57

Our Forecast Modelling


How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 58

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Our Clients

  • ConAgra Foods, Inc.
  • Monsanto Company
  • Cargill, Incorporated
  • Agrium Inc.
  • Archer Daniels Midland Company