Gabon Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2320990
- November 2012
- Region: Gabon
- 44 pages
- Business Monitor International
Relative to a number of other Central and West African economies, our outlook for growth in Gabon’s food, drink and retail sectors is fairly modest. Compared with a lot of our favourite regional consumer economies, Gabon’s outlook is tempered by a relatively modest population of about 1.5mn.
Unlike a lot of Sub-Saharan Africa, generating scale is difficult. Premiumisation will therefore have to play a more important role in driving growth.
- Per capita food consumption growth in 2013: 2.7%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 2.6%.
- Mass grocery retail sales growth in 2013: 13.1%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 13.0%.
- Beer volume sales growth in 2013: 3.9%. Compound annual growth to 2017: 4.6%.
Population Growth: In line with the wider Sub-Saharan African region, a major factor in West and Central Africa’s appeal to investors is its favourable population dynamics. Nigeria, with its massive population, leads the pack in this regard. Gabon is at the opposite end of the scale. Similar to most of its regional peers, it will enjoy very strong population growth – the size of the country’s population is forecast to increase by 75% out to 2050. Also in keeping with broader regional dynamics, Gabon has a very young age profile, with an estimated 46% of the country’s population younger than 20 in 2012.
However, growth is coming from a very low base. Gabon’s population was expected to have reached 1.6mn in 2012, and this marks it out as significantly less attractive than many of its neighbours.
Formalisation of Retailing: Throughout the region, our forecasts for mass grocery retail sales growth outstrip our forecasts for food consumption growth, although it should be noted that both are broadly impressive. The outperformance of retail will be a result of the ongoing formalisation of the sector and the fact that it is, in most cases, coming from an exceptionally low base. The addition of just a few modern retail outlets, which cause shoppers to trade up and away from traditional independent stores and marketplaces, will have a massive impact on growth in the sector. In Gabon, we estimate that only around 3% to 4% of grocery retail sales are accounted for by the organised sector, and this provides strong prospects for growth in spite of the limited size of the potential audience.
Gabon falls in 13th place out of the 13 regional markets that are ranked for Sub-
Saharan Africa within BMI’s Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings. The country’s rewards score is low by regional standards – a product of relatively high existing spending levels and a small population. The country also falls below the regional average in terms of risk, albeit just. This combines to give Gabon the lowest score within the overall regional table. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
Business Environment 6
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 6
Table: Core Views 14
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 16
Macroeconomic Outlook 19
Industry Forecast 21
Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail 21
Table: Food Consumption 22
Table: Alcoholic Drinks 24
Table: Soft Drinks 24
Mass Grocery Retail 25
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales 26
Market Overview 27
Looking Beyond Ghana And Nigeria For Opportunities In West Africa 27
SABMiller’s Sechaba Breweries: SSA’s Most Efficient Beer Company? 29
Demographic Outlook 35
Table: Gabon’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 36
Table: Gabon’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 36
Table: Gabon’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 37
Table: Gabon’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 37
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 38
Table: Rewards 38
Table: Risks 39
Table: Weighting 39
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 40
Food & Drink 40
Mass Grocery Retail 40
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 42