Hungary Tourism Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 72
The Hungary Tourism Report considers the current state of the tourism sector and assesses its potential over the five-year period to 2017. Although growth slowed markedly at the end of 2011, the year was favourable for foreign tourism in Hungary. Growth in tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) was the strongest for many years, up by almost 8% on 2010. The number of overnight and sameday visitors though rose by a more modest 3.5%, while domestic tourism demand was weak. BMI expects a moderate slowdown in foreign tourism growth in 2012, with growth picking up in 2013.
The report analyses hospitiality sector data on overnight stays by both foreign and domestic tourists, as well as reviewing key source markets in the accommodation sector. Aside from the traditional spa and health tourism sectors (a motivational factor for about 15% of foreign tourists), conference tourism –
which recorded a strong rebound in 2010 – is also considered. Medical tourism is another burgeoning area. The bankruptcy of Malév Hungarian Airlines in February 2012 also presents opportunities for rival carriers.
Latest figures for Q212 show growth in foreign visitor arrivals at a reasonable 5% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Same-day visitors were up 6% y-o-y, accounting for three quarters of total arrivals, while the number of overnight visitors rose a slightly weaker 3%. In the hospitality sector, for the period January-July, the underlying picture is one of relatively robust international tourism demand but continuing weak domestic tourism. Growth in tourism (overnight stays) from Europe was solid, at 8% y-o-y, with a turnaround in German tourism to Hungary (after declining in the previous three years), and buoyant growth from Russia and Italy. Increased Russian and Italian tourism accounted for well over one third of the overall improvement in international tourism nights in all accommodation establishments in the seven-month period.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI's growth forecasts for foreign visitor arrivals (revised this quarter to include over-night and same-day visitors) are 3.1% and 3.4% in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
- Inbound tourism from Europe is holding up rather well (considering the poor state of the eurozone economy), which may be partly due to the Arab Spring (boosting Russian tourism, for example).
- BMI's eurozone real GDP growth forecast for 2013 has been edged down to only 0.6%
(compared with 0.9% previously).
- Growth in Germany – the most important market for Hungary's hospitality sector – is forecast to slow sharply to 0.7% in 2012 (revised up from 0.4%), picking up to 1.5% (lowered from 2.0%)
in 2013.
- The Hungarian operations of Danubius Hotels Group reported a slight y-o-y increase in revenue, guest nights and occupancy rates in H112. As in the tourism sector as a whole, tourists from Russia and Italy recorded the strongest growth.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Hungary Tourism SWOT 7
Hungary Political SWOT 8
Hungary Economic SWOT 9
Hungary Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Arrivals 12
Table: Arrivals, 2010-2017 13
Accommodation 14
Table: Hotels Data, 2010-2017 ('000, unless stated) 14
Expenditure 15
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2010-2017 15
Inbound Tourism 16
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017 16
Outbound Tourism 17
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017 17
Market Overview – Travel 19
Commercial Airlines 20
Table: Hungarian Airline Market Key Players, 2011 21
Car Rental Firms 25
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 25
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) 26
Market Overview – Hospitality 35
Table: Leading Accommodation Companies, 2011 35
Accommodation Developments 35
Infrastructure 37
Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings 39
BMI's Security Ratings 39
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 40
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 41
Europe Security Overview 42
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 42
Europe In A Global Context 42
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 42
Global Assumptions 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017 49
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y 50
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 51
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 51
Developed States 52
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) 52
Emerging Markets 53
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) 53
Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%) 54
Company Profiles 55
Accor-Pannonia Hotels 55
Danubius Hotels Group 57
Hilton Worldwide 59
Malév Hungarian Airlines 61
Wizz Air 63
Demographic Outlook 64
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 65
Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 66
Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 67
Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 67
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
Tourism Industry 68
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 69
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Rating Indicators 70
Table: Weighting Of Components 71
Sources 71
Company Profiles
Accor-Pannonia Hotels
Danubius Hotels Group
Hilton Worldwide
Malév Hungarian Airlines
Wizz Air
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