Serbia Defence and Security Report 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 55
Serbia is continuing its efforts to reduce defence spending. The country became the last former Yugoslavian state to end conscription on January 1 2011 as part of a broader programme of downsizing and professionalising its military. Introduced by current defence minister Aleksandar Vucic’s predecessor, Dragan Šutanovac, the initiative was intended to allow for the reinvestment of funds into superior training and more advanced equipment for serving troops BMI estimates that Serbia’s defence spending for 2012 totalled US$856.7mn, a 7.72% reduction on the US$1.016bn invested in 2011 but a 3.96% increase in local currency terms. This equates to 2.25% of GDP, compared with 2.3% in 2011, or 4.94% of total government expenditure, down from 5.10% a year previously.
The country’s military continues to be held back by budgetary constraints. With the newly elected administration of President Tomislav Nikolic currently tackling the public finances as Serbia wallows in recession, there seems little prospect of a significant ramp-up in investment in the immediate future. The country also shows no sign of altering its current defence policy of armed neutrality.
Vucic, Serbia’s new defence minister and the country’s first deputy prime minister, took office on July 27 2012. On October 4, following a meeting in Belgrade with the chief of staff of the Czech military, Lt Gen Petr Pavel, Vucic reiterated Serbia’s position as a militarily neutral state and said it would not be seeking to form multilateral military alliances. However, the minister also stressed the importance of collaboration between countries and volunteered his support for the EU Višegrad Battle Group and the establishment of a regional training centre for educating soldiers on atomic, biological and chemical warfare. Kruševac in central Serbia was proposed as a likely site for such a base.
Serbia’s biggest overseas troop deployment remains the 43 infantry, two observers and one staff officer posted to work with a Hungarian-Slovak unit in Cyprus as part of a UN peacekeeping mission.
Vucic visited the post in September 2012 and met the Serbian troops stationed there as he announced Serbia’s latest foreign policy goals. The country also has a number of staff officers, medical officers,
observers and technicians posted in foreign climes in support of the UN. These territories include Lebanon and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d'Ivoire , Liberia, Somalia and Uganda in Africa Serbia is meanwhile preparing for accession talks with the EU. However, the European Commission (EC)
has so far refused to give the country a start date for negotiations until ‘there is a visible and sustainable improvement of relations with Kosovo that will allow both Serbia and Kosovo to make progress towards the EU and avoid mutual blockade.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Serbia Security SWOT 6
Serbia Defence Industry SWOT 7
Serbia Political SWOT 8
Serbia Economic SWOT 8
Serbia Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Europe Security Overview 15
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 15
Europe In A Global Context 15
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 15
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 15
EU Expansion 16
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 16
Post-Qadhafi Libya 17
Relations With Russia 17
Relations With Turkey 18
The Balkans 19
Organised Crime 19
Islamist Terrorism 19
The Greater Black Sea Region 20
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 21
Security Risk Analysis 22
BMI’s Security Ratings 22
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 22
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 23
Political Overview 25
Domestic Politics 25
Long-Term Political Outlook 26
Armed Forces And Government Spending 30
Overview 30
Professionalisation 31
International Deployments 32
Table: Foreign Deployments 33
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 33
Market Overview 34
Arms Trade Overview 35
Industry Trends And Developments 37
Procurement Trends And Developments 38
Latest Developments 39
Industry Forecast Scenario 41
Armed Forces 41
Table: Serbia's Armed Forces Personnel, 2005-2010 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 41
Table: Serbia's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 41
Government Defence Expenditure 42
Table: Serbia's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 42
Table: Serbia's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 42
Defence Trade 43
Table: Serbia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 43
Table: Serbia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 43
Table: Serbia's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 44
Macroeconomic Activity 45
Table: Serbia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2009-2016 47
Company Profiles 48
Krusik 48
Prvi Partizan 49
Zastava Oružje S-M 50
Methodology 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 51
Defence Industry 51
City Terrorism Rating 52
Table: Methodology 54
Sources 54
Company Profiles
Krusik
Prvi Partizan
Zastava Oružje S-M
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