Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 91
BMI View:
New licensing rounds could lead to a sharp rise in upstream investment, helping to drive long-term growth in reserves and production. However, high oil prices are likely to ensure the country’s oil import bill remains high even as efficiency drives slow demand growth. Rising natural gas demand in the second half of the decade could see the Philippines import its first LNG cargo; however, until a FID is made on an import terminal, BMI will not factor this development into its current forecasts.
The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines’ oil & gas sector are:
- In the near term, the Philippines’s total gas production will be determined not by field capacity,
which is substantial, but by the available market for the fuel. The development of the Malampaya gas field, located 80 kilometres (km) off the coast of Palawan Island, has been managed so supply can be sent to purpose-built power stations, and the main demand driver over the near-tomedium term will, therefore, be the domestic electricity sector.
- Over the longer term, there is clear potential for growth in consumption of Filipino gas, but the customers and infrastructure are not yet in place, so we are assuming demand will only grow gradually to 6.79bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2022. If plans to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG)
power hub progress to a final investment decision (FID), then BMI will adjust its forecasts to take this extra demand potential into account.
- Liquids production growth will be driven by higher condensate and natural gas liquids (NGL)
volumes from the Malampaya gas project and by the Galoc phase II development, which is set to add between 4,000 and 6,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2014. Total liquids output will, therefore,
rise from an estimated 34,970b/d in 2013 to 38,950b/d in 2017.
- We estimate that oil demand will be 313,220b/d in 2012, rising to 320,880b/d by 2016. The implied oil import trend rises slightly from an estimated 280,520b/d in 2012 to some 282,010b/d in 2016.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US99.10/barrel (bbl), falling to US$96.20/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012,
reflecting some recovery in the US, though uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation and an apparent Chinese slowdown will continue to hamper growth. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.3%.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Philippines Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Oil And Gas Reserves 9
Table: Philippines Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 9
Table: Philippines Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 10
Oil Supply And Demand 11
Table: Philippines Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 11
Table: Philippines Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 12
Gas Supply And Demand 14
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 14
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 15
LNG 16
Refining And Oil Products Trade 18
Table: Philippines Refining – Production And Consumption, 2010-2016 18
Table: Philippines Refining – Production And Consumption, 2015-2021 18
Revenues/Import Costs 19
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 19
Country Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Philippines Upstream Rating – Overview 20
Philippines Upstream Rating – Rewards 20
Philippines Upstream Rating – Risks 20
Philippines Downstream Rating – Overview 20
Regional Risk/Reward Rating 21
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings 21
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 26
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 27
Philippines Energy Market Overview 28
Overview/State Role 30
Licensing And Regulation 30
Government Policy 31
Fuel Prices 32
Licensing Rounds 33
International Energy Relations 34
Table: Philippines – Upstream Projects Database 35
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 36
Oil Refineries 36
Table: Downstream Projects 36
Oil Storage Facilities 37
Service Stations 37
Oil Terminals/Ports 37
LNG Terminals 38
Gas Pipelines 38
Competitive Landscape 40
Executive Summary 40
Company Profiles 43
Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC) 43
Petron 46
Royal Dutch Shell 49
Chevron Philippines 52
Nido Petroleum 54
Kairiki Energy – Summary 57
PTT – Summary 57
Total – Summary 57
Otto Energy – Summary 57
Petro Energy – Summary 59
Bio-Genex Laboratories – Summary 59
Others – Summary 59
Regional Energy Market Outlook 62
Table: Number Of Rigs In Operation In Asia 63
Global Energy Market Outlook 68
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts – A Comparison 70
Asia – Regional Appendix 74
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 74
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 74
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 75
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 76
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 77
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 77
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 78
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 79
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 79
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 80
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 81
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 81
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 82
Glossary Of Terms 83
Table: Glossary Of Terms 83
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 85
Ratings Overview 85
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 86
Indicators 86
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 86
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 87
BMI Methodology 89
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 89
Energy Industry 89
Cross checks 90
Sources 90
Company Profiles
Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC)
Petron
Royal Dutch Shell
Chevron Philippines
Nido Petroleum
Kairiki Energy – Summary
PTT – Summary
Total – Summary
Otto Energy – Summary
Petro Energy – Summary
Bio-Genex Laboratories – Summary
Others – Summary
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