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Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

  • Published: January 2013
  • Region: Ukraine
  • 77 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View:

In line with our view for wheat and barley exports to dry out quickly after shipments out of the country surpassed the limit set by the government in September, we do not see the recent ban on wheat exports as unexpected and believe the country has run out of wheat to sell on the global markets.

For dairy, producers have benefited from newly implemented subsidies in a context of higher global milk prices, and the re-opening of trade with Russia could drag production higher in the coming months. For livestock, integrated producers have increased margins in a context of high domestic meat prices and steady demand in spite of slowing economic growth.

Key Forecasts:

- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 22.0% to 23.0mn tonnes. We expect improving technology and yield gains, as well as greater demand from the poultry industry, to drive up corn production.

- Milk consumption growth to 2016/17: 9.9% to 5.7mn tonnes. We expect fluid milk consumption to fluctuate, as consumers are still unable to afford expensive imports.

- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 29.0% to 1.2mn tonnes. We see poultry production as the most modern and dynamic READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Ukraine Agriculture SWOT 7

Ukraine Business Environment SWOT 8

Supply & Demand Analysis 9

Ukraine Dairy Outlook 9
Table: Ukraine Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Ukraine Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Ukraine Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Ukraine Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 12
Table: Ukraine Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 12
Table: Ukraine Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 13

Ukraine Grains Outlook 13
Table: Ukraine Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Ukraine Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Ukraine Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Ukraine Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 17
Table: Ukraine Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 17
Table: Ukraine Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 17

Ukraine Livestock Outlook 18
Table: Ukraine Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: Ukraine Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: Ukraine Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: Ukraine Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 21
Table: Ukraine Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 21
Table: Ukraine Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 21

Commodity Price Analysis 23

Monthly Softs Update 23

Cocoa: Sufficient Supply 23

Coffee: Temporary Rally 25

Cotton: Against Resistance 27

Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex 28

Sugar: Surging Supply 30
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 32

Monthly Grains Update 33

Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time 34

Corn: Looking The Weakest 36

Soybean: Little Relief Ahead 37

Rice: A Strong Performer 39
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 40

Upstream Analysis 41

Europe Fertiliser Outlook 41

Europe GM Outlook 46

Europe Machinery Outlook 50

Downstream Analysis 54

Food 54

Food Consumption 54
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 54

Confectionery 55
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 56

Prepared Food 56
Table: Meat, 2009-2016 57
Table: Jams & Jellies, 2009-2016 58
Table: Pasta, 2009-2016 59
Table: Snack Foods, 2009-2016 61

Drink 63

Alcoholic Drinks 63
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 64

Soft Drinks 64
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 65

Hot Drinks 66
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 66

Mass Grocery Retail 67
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 68
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) 68

Trade 69
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 69

Country Snapshot 70
Table: Ukraine’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 71
Table: Ukraine’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 72
Table: Ukraine’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 73
Table: Ukraine’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 73

Our Forecast Modelling

74

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 74

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