Switzerland Telecommunications Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 98
BMI View:
Switzerland is one of the highest value mobile markets globally, underpinned by high incomes and demand for advanced services. The market retains subscription growth potential relative to other Western European markets. Despite ARPU declines in recent years, and a slowdown in the growth of non-voice revenues, we believe the market also contains potential for value generation in the short and medium term. The launch of LTE, roll-out of FTTH infrastructure and the associated opening of higher VAS markets will help counter price competition in traditional services – although consumer IP substitution is an underlying threat to this view.
Key Data:
- BMI extended our five-year forecasts this quarter for the mobile, mobile ARPU, fixed-line and broadband markets.
- Q113 also saw the implementation of a new Risk/Reward Rating methodology, placing greater emphasis on data services and private final consumption growth. Switzerland's industry rewards score improved, while its country risks score declined. However, it remained in third position in the Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings table.
- BMI upgraded our blended ARPU forecast for Switzerland on the basis of slower than expected decline in operator ARPUs reported for the three months to the end of June 2012. We now forecast monthly blended ARPU of CHF44.1 in Q412 and CHF40.3 in Q417.
Key Trends And Developments:
In Q212 Swisscom reported total SMS of 694mn, down by 4.9% y-o-y. Meanwhile, BMI calculates that SMS per subscriber declined 8.1% y-o-y. Based on the trends witness in other Western European markets, most notably in the Netherlands, we believe this could represent the beginnings of SMS-IP substitution as subscribers take up services such as WhatsApp. This is a threat directly arising from the proliferation of smartphone ownership and uptake of wireless data services, and will lead to a decline in revenues, although it is not possible to determine the scale of the impact at this time.
The threat of IP substitution is not, however, sufficient to deter operator investment in advanced wireless data services that open other revenue streams such as in mobile video, which will allow operators to leverage their pay-TV operations, In June 2012 Swisscom announced that it planned to launch LTE services in 12 cities, including Berne and Zurich by the end of 2012, with further roll-out across Switzerland planned for 2013. In June 2012, Orange confirmed plans to roll out 4G LTE services, with a pilot phase launched in spring 2013. It aims to have a commercially available 4G network in six cities by YE13. Sunrise also announced plans to start the pilot phase for LTE upgrade in H212, with the largescale upgrade to LTE expected to occur in 2013.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Switzerland Mobile Industry SWOT 8
Switzerland Wireline Industry SWOT 9
Switzerland Political SWOT 10
Switzerland Economic SWOT 10
Switzerland Business Environment SWOT 11
Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Western Europe 12
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 16
Switzerland 17
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Mobile 19
Table: Switzerland Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts 19
ARPU 21
Table: Monthly Blended ARPU (CHF) 21
Fixed-Line 23
Table: Switzerland Telecom Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts 23
Internet 24
Table: Switzerland Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts 24
Market Overview 26
Mobile 26
Regional Perspective 26
Table: Switzerland Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 27
Key Developments 27
Mobile Growth 28
Market Share And Net Additions 28
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q211-Q212 (‘000) 30
Subscriber Mix 30
Usage (MOU/ARPU) 31
MVNO 33
3G And Wireless Data 34
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services 36
Mobile Contract Wins 38
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 38
Mobile Operator Data 39
Table: Market Overview 39
Table: Swisscom Mobile 39
Table: Sunrise 40
Table: Orange 41
Mobile Content 42
Regional Overview 42
Fixed-Line 48
Table: Swiss Fixed-Line Subscriber Market, Q111-Q212 (‘000) 49
Broadband 49
Table: Fixed Broadband Subscribers By Operators, Q110-Q212 ('000) 51
FTTH 53
IPTV 55
Wireline Developments 56
Table: Wireline Developments 56
Industry Trends And Developments 57
Table: Industry Developments 59
Regulatory Environment 60
Switzerland: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 60
Legislation And Market Liberalisation 61
Regulation 62
Licensing And Spectrum 63
Regulatory Developments 64
Competitive Landscape 67
Key Players 67
Table: Key Players: Switzerland Telecoms Sector 67
Table: Selected Telecoms Operators Financial Indicators 67
Operator Profiles 68
Swisscom 68
Orange Communications 74
Sunrise Communications 77
Company Monitor 82
Vendor Profile: Telit Communications 82
Table: Telit Communications Financial Performance, 2009-2012 83
Country Snapshot: Switzerland Demographic Data 87
Section 1: Population 87
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 87
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 88
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 88
Table: Education, 2002-2005 88
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 88
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 89
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 89
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 89
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 90
Glossary Of Terms 91
Table: Glossary Of Terms 91
BMI Methodology 93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 93
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 93
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 94
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 94
Ratings System 95
Indicators 95
Table: Ratings Indicators 96
Weighting 97
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 97
Sources 97
Operator Profiles
Swisscom
Orange Communications
Sunrise Communications
Company Monitor
Vendor Profile: Telit Communications
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