Slovenia Defence and Security Report 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 68
Following a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 8.82% in 2011, Slovenia’s defence expenditure declined by 5.89% to US$756.56mn in 2012 as the country’s government continued to rein in spending to appease its economic recession. However, BMI expects Slovenia’s defence budget should rise marginally to US$757.78mn in 2013 and grow steadily from there to US$1.19bn by the end of our forecast period in 2021. The country joined NATO in 2004 and was given until 2014 to have its defence spending account for at least 2% of GDP. This deadline now appears likely to be missed: its defence budget as a percentage of GDP was 1.62% in 2012 and is only expected to grow to 1.64% by 2013 and 1.67% by 2014. Slovenia joined the EU in 2004 but only entered the eurozone in 2007, It has since has suffered as a result of its unfortunate timing, the global economic crisis beginning in September the following year. Previously one of the wealthiest of the former Yugoslav republics, shifting smoothly from communism to free market capitalism, Slovenia’s housing and banking sectors are now in a dire state.
However, Prime Minister Janez Janša insisted in late September 2012 that his country would not require a bailout from its fellow EU member states, despite the country’s ongoing banking crisis. Janša expressed his confidence that his centre-right coalition government would be able to stabilise the economy and steer the country past the threat of bankruptcy with stringent new reform measures and by spending around US$4bnn in buying up bad debts from its banks. Time will tell.
We estimate that Slovenia had 947,463 men and women aged between 16 and 49 in 2012, meaning that 46.44% of its 2mn population was eligible for the armed forces. Conscription was abolished in 2003 and the country has a small but professional military. The Slovenian Cabinet completed its reforms to the country’s pension system in October 2012, allowing men who have served in its armed forces for 40 years to retire at 58 with full benefits and those who have served for 38 years to retire at 63. Since joining NATO Slovene forces have joined peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo,
Macedonia, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia and Afghanistan. The country also formed a defence co-operation pact with China in July 2011 when former defence minister Ljubica Jelusic visited Beijing.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Slovenia Security SWOT 6
Slovenia Defence Industry SWOT 7
Slovenia Political SWOT 7
Slovenia Economic SWOT 8
Slovenia Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Political Outlook 9
Europe Security Overview 14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 14
Europe In A Global Context 14
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 14
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 14
EU Expansion 15
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 15
Post-Qadhafi Libya 16
Relations With Russia 17
Relations With Turkey 17
The Balkans 18
Organised Crime 18
Islamist Terrorism 19
The Greater Black Sea Region 19
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 20
Security Risk Analysis 22
BMI’s Security Ratings 22
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 22
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 23
Political Overview 25
Domestic Politics 25
Long-Term Political Outlook 26
Security Overview 30
Internal Security Situation 30
External Security Situation 34
Relations With Croatia 34
Relations With Serbia 36
Relations With The EU 37
Relations With The US And NATO 37
Latest Developments 38
Armed Forces And Government Spending 40
Armed Forces 40
Defence Reforms 41
International Deployments 43
Coordination And Joint Operations 44
Defence Cooperation – Montenegro 44
Defence Cooperation – Macedonia 45
Market Overview 46
Table: Key Players In Slovenia’s Defence Sector 47
Arms Trade Overview 48
Procurement Trends And Developments 49
Latest Developments 50
Industry Forecast Scenario 52
Armed Forces 52
Table: Slovenia's Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 52
Table: Slovenia's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 52
Government Expenditure On Defence 53
Table: Slovenia’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 53
Table: Slovenia’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 54
Defence Trade 55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 55
Table: Slovenia's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 55
Macroeconomic Forecast 56
Table: Slovenia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 58
Company Profiles 59
Fotona Defence 59
Sistemska Tehnika 60
Skupina KIK Kamnik 62
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Defence Industry 63
City Terrorism Rating 64
Table: Methodology 66
Sources 67
Company Profiles
Fotona Defence
Sistemska Tehnika
Skupina KIK Kamnik
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