North Korea Defence and Security Report 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 81
Political Risk Analysis – Latest Developments
We remain vigilant towards the Korean Peninsula in 2013, as North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un consolidates his power and a new president takes office in the South. Kim Jong Un has shown signs of wanting to reduce the influence of the military so that he can devote more of North Korea's limited resources towards the civilian sector and reform the economy, but he faces powerful vested interests that favour preserving the status quo. Kim will thus be forced to retain a tough policy towards the South,
regardless of who is elected president there in December 2012. However, in doing so he would risk losing an opportunity to improve inter-Korean relations.
Although Kim Jong Un replaced several military leaders in 2012, it remains unclear whether he has supreme authority over North Korea or must still defer to his powerful uncle and aunt and other senior generals. We suspect that owing to his youth and inexperience, Kim is heavily influenced by his late father's inner circle. This would appear to point to continuity in domestic and foreign policy. However,
given that many senior North Korean officials are now in their 70s and even 80s, a generational shift through natural attrition will present opportunities for Kim Jong Un to accumulate more authority.
North Korea will remain a formidable military threat to its neighbours due to its massive 1.1-million strong conventional armed forces, and its weapons of mass destruction, which include nuclear weapons.
That said, the very public failure of an attempted satellite launch in April 2012 demonstrated that Pyongyang has yet to perfect its rocket technology. Nevertheless, we do not expect North Korea to make any meaningful concessions on its nuclear weapons programme, because it regards its atomic weapons arsenal as the ultimate guarantor of regime security, in the face of potential external attack.
Although regime collapse does not appear to be imminent, and the likelihood of an 'Arab Spring'-style uprising is low, there are reasons to doubt the survivability of Kim Jong Un's regime over the longer term.
North Korea's chronic economic weaknesses over a period of more than 20 years mitigate against a quickfix solution, even if there was a political will for major reforms. At best, North Korea will muddle through its economic difficulties thanks to economic support from China. At worst, the Kim regime could collapse over the coming years, triggering major refugee flows and the risk that centralised control over North Korea's vast military machine and armaments will break down. This would present major security challenges for China, South Korea, the US, Japan and Russia.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
North Korea Security SWOT 6
North Korea Defence Industry SWOT 7
Global Political Outlook 8
North East Asia Security Overview 13
North East Asia: The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 13
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia 13
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 14
The China-North Korea Border 17
The Taiwan Strait 18
Disputed Islands 19
The Russia-China Border 21
China's Western Periphery 21
The Evolution Of North East Asia 22
Security Risk Analysis 26
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 26
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 27
Political Overview 28
Domestic Politics 28
Long-Term Political Outlook 30
Foreign Policy 34
Security Overview 39
North Korea Security Overview 2013 39
Security Overview 39
The Nuclear Dispute: No Disarmament In Sight 43
Armed Forces And Government Spending 54
Armed Forces 54
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 57
Chemical And Biological Weapons 59
Nuclear Weapons 60
Market Overview 64
Recent Changes 65
Arms Trade 66
Industry Trends And Developments 68
Industry Forecast Scenario 71
Armed Forces 71
Table: North Korea’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 71
Table: North Korea’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 71
Defence Expenditure 71
Table: North Korea’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 72
Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 73
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 75
Macroeconomic Forecast 75
Competitive Landscape 78
BMI Methodology 79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 79
Defence Industry 79
Sources 80
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