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The Future of the Chemical Industry by 2050 - Product Image

The Future of the Chemical Industry by 2050

  • Published: April 2013
  • Region: Global
  • 331 Pages
  • John Wiley and Sons Ltd

Discussing the technological supremacy of the chemical industry, including pharmaceuticals, and how it will adopt a leading position to solve some of the largest global challenges humans have even seen, this book details how the industry will address climate change, aging populations, resource scarcity, globality, networks speed, pandemics, and massive growth and demand.

Following a detailed introduction to some of the megatrends shaping our world over the forthcoming decades, the book goes on to provide several scenarios of how the world could look by 2050, including 'business as usual' and a 'sustainable' one. Chapter 3 gives a comprehensive overview of the current status, while providing a short historical review of the chemical industry, its origins, achievements and fundamentals. The following chapter reviews the potential impact of each of the selected megatrends on the industry, while Chapter 5 proposes how it could look by 2050. Several features of the chemical industry are presented and discussed, including the industrial relevance from an economical, technological and profitability point of view. The largest chemicals markets in absolute and per capita bases and the READ MORE >

Preface IX

Acknowledgments XIII

Introduction 1

Methodology 4

1 Global Megatrends by 2050 11

1.1 Social Megatrends 16

1.1.1 Population Growth 16

1.1.2 Demographics 18

1.1.2.1 Area and Age Distribution 18

1.1.2.2 Change in Age Distribution 18

1.1.3 Urbanization 25

1.1.3.1 Megacities 27

1.2 Economic Megatrends 29

1.2.1 Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) 40

1.3 Political Megatrend 42

1.3.1 Trend – A New International Order 43

1.3.1.1 Sub Trend – the Emergence of the BRIC Economies 43

1.3.1.2 Sub Trend – Corporate Mega Economies – (CME) 46

1.3.1.3 Sub trend – Social Networks 50

1.3.2 Trend – An increasing role of Governments 54

1.4 Energy Megatrends 61

1.4.1 Recent Energy Transitions 63

1.4.2 Key Lessons from Recent Energy Mix Transitions 69

1.4.3 Energy Life Cycle 69

1.4.4 Energy Success Criteria 69

1.4.5 Shocks Are a Valuable Source of Information 70

1.4.6 Transitions Occur in ‘‘Life’’ 70

1.4.7 The Golden Rule – Economics Dictate Energy Transitions 70

1.4.8 Transitions Always Occur, the Question Is When: The Oil Peak 71

1.4.9 The Oil Peak – M.King Hubbert 74

1.4.10 OPEC – Energy projections to 2030 75

1.4.11 Recent Developments 80

1.4.11.1 Nuclear Energy – The Aftermath of Fukushima 80

1.4.11.2 Shale Gas the ‘‘Game Changer’’ – Natural Gas the Energy of the Future 85

1.5 Climate Change 99

1.5.1 Business Case – EU Tire Labeling – CO2 Emissions Reduction in the Tire and Automotive Industry 113

1.6 Wild Cards 129

1.6.1 Political 131

1.6.2 Social 131

1.6.3 Technological 132

1.6.4 Transportation 132

1.7 Accelerators – Information Technology and ‘‘Singularity’’ 132

Appendix: Climate Change 139

2 The World by 2050 141

2.1 ‘‘A Much Larger, Wealthier, Healthier, and Sustainable World’’ 141

2.1.1 Methodology 144

2.2 Status of the World – 2010 145

2.3 The World in 2050 146

2.3.1 BAU Scenario 146

2.3.2 Sustainable Scenario 155

Appendix: Roadmaps to a World of 4000 g of CO2 per Capita per Day 161

3 The Chemical Industry in 2010 163

3.1 Chemical Industry: Economic Relevance 163

3.2 Chemical Industry: Technological Relevance 166

3.3 Industry Relevance: Profitability 168

3.4 Feedstocks and Energy 171

3.5 Major Sectors and Products of the Chemical Industry 173

3.6 Industry Structure and Companies 173

3.7 Safety 184

3.8 Background 186

3.8.1 Recent History of the Chemical Industry Excluding Pharmaceuticals 186

3.8.1.1 1750–1850 Industrial Revolution and Inorganic Chemistry 187

3.8.1.2 1850 Synthetic Dyes from Coal for Textiles, and Chlorine Bleach 187

3.8.1.3 1870 Celluloid 187

3.8.1.4 1880 Rayon from Wood Fibers 188

3.8.1.5 1900 Electrolysis of Brine (Chlorine) 188

3.8.1.6 1913 Synthetic Fertilizers 189

3.8.1.7 1910–1920 Steam Cracker (Ethylene, Propylene and Butadiene) 190

3.8.1.8 1920–1930 – Styrene Cracking (Ethyl-benzene and Styrene) Cracking 190

3.8.1.9 Polyamide Nylon (DuPont) 190

3.8.1.10 1930s – Synthetic Rubber 190

3.8.1.11 1950s – Plastics Demand Explodes 191

3.8.1.12 1960s Internationalization 194

3.8.1.13 2010–2050 – The Chemical Industry Leads the Revolution against Climate Change 194

3.9 Conclusion 194

3.10 Summary – Industry Major Features and Upcoming Megatrends 195

3.11 Major Features of the Chemical Industry 197

3.11.1 Summary: Global Major Megatrends 199

Bibliography 200

4 Impact Assessment of the Global Megatrends on the Chemical Industry 201

4.1 Introduction 201

4.2 Megatrends with the Highest Impact into the Chemical Industry (Global & Area Level) 207

4.3 Megatrends with the Highest Impact in the Industry (Area Level) – (Figure 4.4) 208

4.4 Megatrends with the Highest Impact into the Different Features of the Industry 210

4.5 Major Results for the Chemical Industry Globally 212

4.6 Major Results for the Chemical Industry in the ADV Economies 214

4.7 Major Results for the Chemical Industry in the BRIC Economies 216

4.8 Major Results for the Chemical Industry in the REST Economies 218

5 The Chemical Industry by 2050 221

5.1 Introduction 221

5.2 Feature 1: The Relevance of the Chemical Industry 225

5.2.1 Economic Relevance 226

5.2.1.1 Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals by 2050 – per Capita Demand in $US 229

5.2.2 Technological Relevance 236

5.2.2.1 The Chemical Industry – Long Term Cycles 236

5.2.3 Profitability 241

5.3 Feature 2: Inputs – Feedstocks 245

5.3.1 BAU Scenario for Feedstocks by 2050 247

5.3.2 Feedstock Simulation II by 2050: ‘‘Shale Gas I – Ethane + 20% Globally’’ 250

5.3.3 Simulation II by 2050: ‘‘Shale Gas II – Ethane at Maximum Capacity Globally’’ – (Unreal) 252

5.3.4 Conclusion and Feedstock Alternatives 254

5.4 Feature 3: Outputs – Products 256

5.4.1 Global Ethylene Market by 2050 – BAU Scenario 258

5.5 Feature 4: Climate Change – Greenhouse Emissions – CO2 Emissions 264

5.5.1 Historical and Future Scenarios on World CO2 Emissions 268

5.5.2 Summary – Global Emission Trading Systems in Operation 277

5.5.2.1 Chemical Industry – Greenhouse Emissions Abatement in 2005 281

5.6 Feature 5: Industry Structure 283

5.6.1 Markets – Largest World Markets 284

5.6.1.1 Chemicals 284

5.6.1.2 Pharmaceuticals 284

5.6.2 Per Capita Demand 287

5.6.2.1 Chemicals 287

5.6.2.2 Pharmaceuticals 289

5.6.3 Companies – Changes in Global Sales Rankings and Company Structures 291

5.7 Feature 6: Social Awareness 294

Appendix – Climate Change 296

6 Conclusion 307

Appendix 315

Index 319

“Valuable for those who need to know, now and in the future; Yogi would be pleased.  Summing Up: Highly recommended.  Upper-division undergraduates and above.”  (Choice, 1 January 2014)

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