Germany Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 69
BMI's Germany Defence & Security Report for Q113 examines the country's defence posture, defence procurement initiatives and its defence spending.
Chiefly, the report examines the sometimes painful transition of Germany's armed forces from their Cold War-era role of defending the country against Soviet and Warsaw Pact aggression, into a force capable of meeting the security challenges of the 21st Century.
The report also examines a number of aspects of Germany's defence policy, including the continuingly vexing question facing the country concerning the transformation of its defence posture from its NATO European defence tasks into a force which can intervene in crises abroad. Berlin is keen to move Germany's armed forces in this direction, but faces perennial domestic opposition from some portions of its population regarding the deployment of forces abroad.
In addition, the report examines several of Germany's major defence procurement programmes. The German government is investing considerably across the land and air domains in particular. Capabilities in these two sectors are seen as essential to enable Germany to project power beyond its borders, though the notion remains deeply controversial. The legacy of the Second World War makes a significant element of the German polity highly distrustful of the procurement of any capabilities that enable Germany to intervene in conflicts beyond its borders. Nevertheless, since the end of the Cold War, Berlin has played an increasingly active role in military operations abroad, most notably in Afghanistan.
Over the past quarter, BMI has added the following discussions to the report:
- A detailed description of Germany's recently overhauled defence decision-making process and the orders of battle of its armed forces;
- Defence modernisation programmes ongoing in the German Army, Air Force and Navy including changes to orders to battle, and equipment procurement;
- Details of recent procurement activity conducted in the Q412 timeframe.
- A discussion of recent developments in Rheinmetall, a major German military equipment manufacturer, and other defence contractors.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Germany Security SWOT 6
Germany Defence SWOT 7
Germany Political SWOT 7
Germany Economic SWOT 8
Germany Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Political Outlook 9
Europe Security Overview 14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 14
Europe In A Global Context 14
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 14
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 14
EU Expansion 15
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 15
Post-Qadhafi Libya 16
Relations With Russia 16
Relations With Turkey 17
The Balkans 18
Organised Crime 18
Islamist Terrorism 18
The Greater Black Sea Region 19
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 20
Security Risk Ratings 21
BMI's Security Ratings 21
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 21
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 22
Political Outlook 24
Domestic Politics 24
Austerity And Eurozone To Dominate 2013 Electoral Race 24
Long-Term Political Outlook 25
Tackling The Demographic and Economic Challenges 25
Germany Security Overview 29
Internal Threats 29
Domestic Terrorism 29
Latest Developments 29
External Threats 30
International Terrorism 30
Latest Developments 31
Armed Forces And Government Spending 33
Grand Strategy 33
Order of Battle 35
Defence Modernisation 37
International Deployments & Joint Exercises 40
Table: Germany's International Deployments 41
Weapons of Mass Destruction 43
Arms Trade Overview 46
Table: Key Players In Germany's Defence Industry 48
Procurement Trends and Developments 48
Industry Forecast Scenario 50
Armed Forces 50
Table: Germany’s Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated), 2002-2008 50
Table: Germany’s Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated), 2010-2017 50
Defence Expenditure 51
Table: Germany Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 51
Table: Germany's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn 51
Table: Germany’s Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 52
Table: Germany’s Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 52
Macroeconomic Outlook 53
Little Hope Of A Consumption Boost 53
Table: Germany – GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2009-2016 55
Company Profiles 56
EADS 56
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann 58
Rheinmetall Group 60
Country Snapshot 63
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 64
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 65
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 66
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 66
BMI Methodology 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67
Defence Industry 67
Sources 68
Company Profiles
EADS
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann
Rheinmetall Group
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