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Belarus Defence and Security Report 2013 Product Image

Belarus Defence and Security Report 2013

  • Published: December 2012
  • 64 pages
  • Business Monitor International

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • 558 Aviation Repair Plant
  • Beltechexport
  • Company Profiles
  • Minotor Service Company
  • MORE

For 2013, BMI expects Belarusian defence expenditure to be at US$1.28bn, a 29.22% increase on the US$992.87mn invested in 2012 when government cuts were implemented as a result of broader economic pressures. This will account for 1.65% of GDP, up from 1.63% in 2012. The country remains dependent on neighbouring Russia for raw material trading and political support, with Russia receiving almost 50
%of Belarusian exports. However, bilateral relations were thought to have soured between Minsk and Moscow in 2009 over conflicting attitudes towards the disputed South Caucasus territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia imperilling Belarus' economy by rejecting imports when the latter refused to endorse its position. Matters improved enough in 2012 for the pair to resume oil supply negotiations,
with Russian ambassador Alexander Surikov expressing his confidence that future arrangements would be in place before the end of 2012.

The reason for Belarus's reliance on Russia is its isolation as a result of Western disapproval of its unreconstructed Soviet strongman president, Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994 and
'authoritarian' by his own admission. Lukashenko has READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Belarus Security SWOT 6

Belarus Defence Industry SWOT 7

Belarus Political SWOT 8

Belarus Economic SWOT 8

Belarus Business Environment SWOT 9

Global Political Outlook 10

Europe Security Overview 15

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 15

Europe In A Global Context 15

Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 15

The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 15

EU Expansion 16

NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 16

Post-Qadhafi Libya 17

Relations With Russia 18

Relations With Turkey 18

The Balkans 19

Organised Crime 19

Islamist Terrorism 20

The Greater Black Sea Region 20

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 21

Security Risk Analysis 23

BMI's Security Ratings 23
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 23
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 24

Political Overview 26

Domestic Politics 26

Key Political Challenges For Regime 26

Long-Term Political Outlook 28

The Balancing Act Will Continue 28

Belarus Security Overview 33

Internal Security Situation 33

Latest Developments 34

Territorial Disputes 35

Relations With The West 36

Relations With Central Asia And Russia 37

Latest Developments 40

Armed Forces And Government Spending 41

Armed Forces 41

Historical Strength 42

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 42

Market Overview 44

Industry Trends And Developments 46
Table: Key Players In Belarus' Defence Sector 46

Arms Trade Overview 47

Latest Developments 50

Industry Forecast Scenario 52

Armed Forces 52
Table: Belarus Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 52
Table: Belarus Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 52

Defence Expenditure 53
Table: Belarus Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 53
Table: Belarus Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 54

Macroeconomic Forecast 55

Net Exports To Drive Recovery 55
Table: Belarus – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 57

Company Profiles 58

Beltechexport 58

558 Aviation Repair Plant 59

Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT) 60

Minotor Service Company 61

BMI Methodology 62

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 62

Defence Industry 62

Sources 63

Company Profiles
Beltechexport
558 Aviation Repair Plant
Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT)
Minotor Service Company

Format Properties
Electronic (PDF) The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.
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