Jordan Defence and Security Report 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 83
Jordan's defence expenditure is set to grow, despite austerity measures. In the increasingly volatile region where Jordan has begun to face an active threat from the civil war in Syria, the government is committed to increasing its defence budget. A total of JOD1.1bn (US$1.6bn) spent on defence in 2012, and by 2017 BMI expects this to rise to JOD1.87bn (US$2.43bn). The Jordanians are particularly concerned with modernising their military, something that offers expanded opportunity for the US and UK defence firms which traditionally provide much of the country's advanced weaponry.
The political situation in Jordan has continued to deteriorate, prompting the King to call for early elections on October 5 2012, though a date for the elections themselves was not fixed. Mass protests took place after the announcement, with protesters demanding reform of the regime while still disavowing a popular uprising. The new electoral law being protested failed to enshrine a key demand of the protestors,
who have called for the prime minister to be appointed by parliament and not by the king. The elections are set to be boycott by Islamists and leftists, while voter registration drives have proved harder than the government had hoped. The new elections come as the country faces increased political instability and the appointment of the third Prime Minister since the beginning of 2012.
Jordanian intelligence foiled a major terrorist plot in October 2012, according to reports from CNN.
Eleven suspected terrorists were arrested by security forces, having allegedly planned to attack a range of targets within the country. The targets included foreign nationals and diplomats as well as shopping centres and residential areas. It is understood that all those arrested are Jordanian citizens and that the eleven men have recently travelled to and from Syria regularly. The explosives and weapons for the attacks were to be sourced from Syria, highlighting the impact that the civil war on the country is having on neighbouring states.
In October 2012 the Jordanian military received a small US force to help deal with the fallout from the Syrian civil war. The soldiers will be setting up a headquarters near the border in order to provide a range of as-yet-unknown assistance to the Jordanian military. It is understood, according to reports from The Guardian, that the soldiers are focused on helping Jordan develop contingency plans to secure the chemical and biological weapons currently in the possession of the Syrian government. Jordan has been planning special forces missions to secure the weapons in the event of government collapse for some time, but has been undoubtedly aided by this US assistance. The move was announced by the US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, though the Jordanians have denied the move saying that the Jordanian military is more than capable of defending Jordan from all threats.
The King Abdullah II Design & Development Bureau (KADDB) has formed a new joint venture with a Turkish defence firm Aselsan. The new firm, 'ASELSAN Middle East Company', will produce night vision and thermal-imaging equipment. Aselsan is a major Turkish electronics manufacturer. The JV will be 51%-owned by KADDB. Initially the company will manufacture single lens night-vision equipment and thermal-imaging equipment for vehicles. The production will take place in Jordan and may potentially expand to include other products.
The Royal Jordanian Air Force will be receiving a new air control system from Lockheed Martin. The company was chosen by the Jordanians and the US Air Force to provide the next generation system for the Jordanians. The FMS contract will allow the Jordanian military an integrated, real-time view of the country's airspace and air assets, using information from multiple command centres. The system to be installed is known an 'Omnyx'. The system collates data from existing radar infrastructure. The system is also intended to improve cooperation between the Air Force and other branches of the military. Lockheed Martin is being paid US$26mn under the terms of the contract.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Jordan Security SWOT 7
Jordan Defence Industry SWOT 8
Jordan Political SWOT 9
Jordan Economic SWOT 9
Jordan Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Political Outlook 11
Middle East Security Overview 14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 14
The Middle East In A Global Context 14
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 15
Regional Power Dynamics 25
Nuclear Proliferation 27
External Powers 28
Scenarios For The Middle East 30
Scenario Three: Political Liberalisation Takes Hold 31
Security Risk Ratings 32
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 32
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 33
Jordan's Security Risk Ratings 33
Political Overview 35
Domestic Politics I 35
More Of The Same, For Now 35
Domestic Politics II 38
Prime Minister Set To Resign? 38
Long-Term Political Outlook 40
Long-Term Political Outlook – Further Reforms On The Horizon? 40
Jordan Security Overview 43
Internal Security Situation 43
Terrorism 46
Ongoing Threats 48
Southern Dissent 49
Latest Developments 49
Regional External Security Situation 51
International 52
Latest Developments 54
Armed Forces And Government Spending 56
Armed Forces 56
Defence Equipment 57
International Deployments 57
Table: Jordan's Foreign Deployments 58
Market Overview 59
Arms Trade Overview 60
Industry Trends And Developments 63
Procurement Trends And Developments 65
Latest Developments 66
Industry Forecast Scenario 68
Armed Forces 68
Table: Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 68
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 68
Defence Expenditure 68
Table: Jordan's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 69
Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 70
Defence Trade 71
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 71
Macroeconomic Forecast 71
Slowdown Ahead 71
Table: Jordan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 74
Company Profiles 75
Indigenous Manufacturers 75
King Abdullah II Design and Development Bureau (KADDB) 75
Joint Ventures 77
Jordan Light Vehicle Manufacturing (JLVM) 77
Foreign Manufacturers 78
Raytheon Technical Services Company (RTSC) 78
RUAG Land Systems 79
General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) 80
United Defense 80
BMI Methodology 81
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 81
Defence Industry 81
Sources 82
Company Profiles
Indigenous Manufacturers
King Abdullah II Design and Development Bureau (KADDB)
Joint Ventures
Jordan Light Vehicle Manufacturing (JLVM)
Foreign Manufacturers
Raytheon Technical Services Company (RTSC)
RUAG Land Systems
General Dynamics L
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