Tanzania Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2356111
- December 2012
- Region: Tanzania
- 39 pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI View: We are encouraged by the fact that the Tanzanian government has placed a greater emphasis on development expenditure, highlighting healthcare as a key area of investment, particularly as the country's disease burden is set to increase. However, we are concerned by the continued reliance on foreign grants and concessional loans.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: TZS340.1bn (US$214mn) in 2011 to an expected TZS406.0bn
(US$257mn) in 2012; +19.4% growth in local currency terms and +19.8% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: TZS1,792.12bn (US$1.13bn) in 2011 to TZS2,0549.75bn (US$1.30bn) in 2012; 14.4% growth in local currency terms and 14.7% in US dollar terms.
In BMI's Q113 Risk/Reward Ratings, Tanzania is ranked 19th in the MEA region,
above Gabon and below Namibia and Ghana. A sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding,
corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Tanzania in a similarly lowly position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets (most of which are not surveyed by BMI), Tanzania offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In October 2012, it was reported that a counterfeit anti-retroviral drug (ARV) under the brand name TT-VIR 30 had been in circulation in Tanzania. The counterfeit ARV was discovered when the Tanzania Food and Drugs Authority (TFDA) carried out a routine inspection at Tarime District Hospital in the Mara region in late September 2012. It was alleged that the product was manufactured by a local company, Tanzania Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TPI Ltd), and distributed by the Medical Stores Department (MSD). The TFDA has taken the drug out of circulation and production of the drug at TPI Ltd has been suspended until the investigation is complete.
- In October 2012, the Tanzanian finance and economic affairs minister Wiliam Mgimwa signed a bilateral grant agreement of EUR176mn (US$228mn) with Germany to support development in Tanzania. The grant, which will be given during a period of three years, will benefit the Public Financial Management Reform project, the National Audit Office, local governance, and the Study and Expert Fund in Tanzania. Of the total grant, 24% allocation will go to the health sector.
- In October 2012, it was revealed that five hospitals in Tanzania will be connected by telemedicine technology in December to improve efficiency and reduce unnecessary transfers of patients between facilities, the principal of Dar es Salaam Institute of Technology, John Kondoro, has said. Mwananyamala Hospital, Amana Hospital, Temeke Hospital and Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, and Tumbi Hospital in the Coast Region, will be interconnected in the pilot telemedicine programme, Tanzania Daily News reported. The programme will let doctors share information from medical tests through video conferencing, so patients will not have to move between establishments. The systems will use the Linux-based Param Serengeti supercomputing cluster installed at the Tanzania and India ICT Centre of Excellence,
BMI Economic View:
Recent data showing that the Tanzanian economy has been more resilient to the effects of high inflation than we had anticipated has led us to upgrade our 2012 growth forecast to 7.0
%from 5.5% previously. Our 2013 forecast remains at 7.4% and we believe that the economy has the potential to sustain annual expansion rates in the 7.0-8.0% range over the medium term provided plans to invest in the country's inadequate infrastructure, and power sector in particular, go ahead.
BMI Political View:
We believe that ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is likely to continue losing ground to opposition Chama Cha Maendeleo Na Demokrasia for the foreseeable future despite the governing party's efforts to reassert its dominance. That said, CCM's existing parliamentary majority combined with the fractured nature of the political landscape mean that Chademais unlikely to win power in the 2015 election unless the party works more closely with other opposition movements and/or CCM is hit by an overly divisive succession struggle. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings 7
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 7
Tanzania - Market Summary 10
Regulatory Regime 11
Intellectual Property Issues 11
Medicine Procurement 12
Industry Trends And Developments 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 18
Pharmaceuticals Market Forecast 18
Table: Pharmaceuticals Sales Indicators 2008-2016 19
Healthcare Market Forecast 20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016 21
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016 22
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016 22
Macroeconomic Outlook 23
Table: Tanzania - Economic Activity 26
Competitive Landscape 27
Local Production 27
Opportunities In Government Financed And Donor Funded Healthcare Sector 27
Demographic Outlook 29
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 30
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 31
Table: Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 32
Table: Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 32
BMI Methodology 35
How We Generate Our Pharmaceuticals Industry Forecasts 35
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 36
Ratings Overview 36
Table: Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Indicators 37
Table: Weighting Of Components 38