Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 92
BMI View: Despite having a relatively strong domestic oil and gas position, Thailand is increasingly exposed to oil price fluctuations because of its growing reliance on crude oil imports, pipeline gas and now LNG. The country could become a major exporter of refined oil products within the Asian region,
but tough decisions must be made with regard to refinery investment if this potential is to be realised.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Thai Oil and Gas sector are:
- Thailand's energy demand is expected to rise almost 5% in 2012, driven by economic growth and reconstruction work after flooding in 2011, the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO)
of the Ministry of Energy said in January 2012. Suthep Liumsirijarern, EPPO's director-general,
said energy demand in Thailand in 2012 was forecast to rise about 4.8% to 1.94mn barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), following growth of 4.1% in 2011.
- US major Chevron brought its US$3.1bn Platong-2 gas project in the Gulf of Thailand onstream earlier than expected. Platong-2 will produce about 3.4bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year and 18,000 barrels a day (b/d) of natural gas liquids. State controlled explorer PTTEP's investment in domestic gas production, in addition to the rising volumes supplied by Chevron and other partners, points to stable medium-term gas output. This is forecast to plateau at around 40.0bcm in 2012/13. Consumption looks set to reach 59.5bcm in 2016, implying an import requirement of 25.5bcm. By 2021, Thailand could be consuming almost 75.0bcm of gas, importing around 49.0bcm.
- Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have now started arriving in the country after PTT built a regasification terminal at Map Ta Phut. The facility entered service in June 2011 and can handle 5mn tonnes per annum (tpa). PTT is looking at expediting the expansion of the terminal by oneto-
two years to help cope with faster-than-expected growth in gas demand. The company believes it is necessary to add a second 5mn tpa unit earlier than expected because of additional gas demand – largely spurred by new gas-fired power plants, a senior PTT executive said in January 2012. BMI forecasts that LNG import volumes could rise to 14bcm in 2016.
- Oil consumption rose from 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 808,000b/d between 1990 and 1997,
before the Asian crisis triggered a collapse and consumption sunk to 701,610b/d in 2001.
Demand has been on a generally upward trend ever since and hit around 981,000b/d in 2011.
BMI is assuming 2-3% average annual growth to 2016, which suggests consumption of 1.11mn b/d, rising to 1.24mn b/d by 2021. BMI sees oil import volumes rising to 1.03mn b/d by 2021.
Assuming an average 2012 OPEC basket oil price of US$107.05/bbl, Thai petroleum import costs are put at US$30.77bn, rising to US$56.62bn by 2021 (when our oil price assumption is US$91.50/bbl).
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Thailand Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Oil And Gas Reserves 9
Table: Thailand Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 9
Table: Thailand Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021 10
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Thailand Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 12
Table: Thailand Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021 13
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Thailand Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 15
Table: Thailand Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021 16
LNG 19
Refining and Oil Products Trade 20
Table: Thailand Refining – Production & Consumption – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 20
Table: Thailand Refining – Production & Consumption – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021 20
Revenues/Import Costs 21
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 21
Country Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 22
Thailand Upstream Rating – Overview 22
Thailand Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
Thailand Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Thailand Downstream Rating – Overview 22
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings 23
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 28
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Thailand Energy Market Overview 30
Overview/State Role 31
Licensing And Regulation 31
Government Policy 31
Licensing Rounds 32
International Energy Relations 33
Table: Key Upstream Players 34
Table: Key Downstream Players 34
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 35
Oil Refineries 35
Table: Refineries In Thailand 35
Service Stations 36
Oil Storage Facilities 36
LNG Terminals 37
Oil Terminals/ Ports 37
Oil Pipelines 37
Gas Storage Facilities 37
Gas Pipelines 38
Gas-Processing Plants 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Executive Summary 40
Table: Key Players In Thailand's Oil & Gas Sector 41
Company Profiles 42
PTT 42
PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) 45
Chevron 48
Esso (Thailand) 51
Thai Shell Co 53
Salamander Energy 54
IRPC – Summary 57
Hess – Summary 57
Star Petroleum – Summary 58
BG Group – Summary 58
Pan Orient Energy – Summary 58
Coastal Energy – Summary 59
Carnarvon Petroleum – Summary 60
Others – Summary 61
Regional Energy Market Outlook 63
Table: Number Of Rigs In Operation In Asia 64
Global Energy Market Outlook 69
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts – A Comparison 71
Asia – Regional Appendix 75
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 75
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 75
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 76
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 77
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 78
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 78
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 79
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 80
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 80
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 81
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 82
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 82
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 83
Glossary Of Terms 84
Table: Glossary Of Terms 84
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 86
Ratings Overview 86
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 87
Indicators 87
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 87
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 88
BMI Methodology 90
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 90
Energy Industry 90
Cross checks 91
Sources 91
Company Profiles
PTT
PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)
Chevron
Esso (Thailand)
Thai Shell Co
Salamander Energy
IRPC – Summary
Hess – Summary
Star Petroleum – Summary
BG Group – Summary
Pan Orient Energy – Summary
Coastal Energy – Summary
Carnarvon Petroleum – Summary
Others – Summary
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