Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 98
BMI View: The cooling economic environment and the weakening lira has moderated optimistic forecasts on the Turkish pharmaceutical market, especially as the government is the single largest reimburser of pharmaceuticals, covering 80-85% of total drug expenditure through various insurance and immunisation schemes. Price cutting and public discount decrees announced in November 2011 continue to affect the pharmaceutical market in 2012, as highlighted by the decrease in pharmaceutical spending in the first half of this year.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: TRY17.21bn (US$10.24bn) in 2011 to TRY16.35bn (US$9.03bn) in 2012; -
5.0% in local currency terms and -11.8% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast downgraded from Q412 on account of H112 data.
- Healthcare: TRY83.59bn (US$49.75bn) in 2011 to TRY92.02bn (US$50.84bn) in 2012;
+10.1% in local currency terms and +2.2%in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast slightly increased from Q412 due to increased healthcare investment.
- Medical devices: TRY4.33bn (US$2.58bn) in 2011 to TRY4.78bn (US$2.64bn) in 2012;
+10.3% in local currency terms and +2.4% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly unchanged from Q412.
Risk/Reward Rating:
A subdued outlook for pharmaceutical market growth combined with the weakness of the Turkish lira continues to feed through the assessment, translated into a weaker rewards score. Turkey’s composite score is 53 in Q113, while the country moves up to 9th out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe from 11th in the previous quarter.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In October 2012, Abdi Ibrahim acquired a majority shareholder stake in Global Pharm, the largest drugmaker in Kazakhstan. Abdi Ibrahim also stated its intention to begin construction of a new production facility in Kazakhstan, which is expected to come online by the close of 2014.
This latest move by the Turkish drugmaker is a strategic expansion into the markets of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), notably within the Central Asian and Caucasus region, which share linguistic and ethnic ties with Turkey.
- In July 2012, it emerged that Zentiva, the Czech based generic drugs subsidiary of French global drugmaker Sanofi, is seeking to turn Turkey into a production base for generic drugs. Zentiva senior vice president Jerome Silvestre said, 'Our facilities in Lüleburgaz, in the Thracian province of Kirklareli, received quality certification from 13 countries. We will turn our facilities in Lüleburgaz into a production base for generic drugs by shifting the production of many drugs from facilities abroad to Turkey.'
- Importers of the drug Purinethol (mercaptopurine), commonly used for the treatment of leukaemia, withdrew the product from the Turkish pharmaceutical market in October 2012 because of the low reimbursement price set by the Social Security Institution (SGK). The SGK mandated the price of Purinethol at TRY9.00 (US$4.96) per pack, in comparison to its significantly higher price of EUR60-90 (US$77-116) in other European markets.
BMI Economic View:
The second quarter real GDP growth print of 2.9% supports our forecast for a major slowdown in headline growth in 2012 and 2013 relative to the previous two years. The fact that domestic consumption continues to weaken while exports boom also reinforces our view that the Turkish economy would undergo some degree of economic rebalancing. That said, risks to growth are still skewed to the downside, particularly given the large current account deficit and the economy's vulnerability to higher oil prices.
BMI Political View:
Syria-Turkey relations have become increasingly strained in recent months,
following Syria's downing of a Turkish fighter jet in June 2012, and two-way cross-border shelling at the start of October that killed five Turkish civilians. Turkey has two major concerns stemming from the Syrian civil war. The first is the flow of refugees into its own territory. Syrian refugees now number almost 90,000. The second is that the weakening of the Syria's central authority could allow Syria's Kurds to form their own statelet in northern Syria, similar to the one that emerged in northern Iraq. The existence of two Kurdish entities on Turkey's borders could further encourage Turkey's own Kurds in their struggle for autonomy, if not outright independence.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Turkey Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Turkey Political SWOT 8
Turkey Economic SWOT 8
Turkey Political SWOT 9
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Q113 10
Rewards 11
Risks 11
Turkey – Market Summary 13
Regulatory Regime 14
Intellectual Property Regime 15
Market Access Issues 16
Pricing Regime 17
Table: Turkish Pharmaceutical Pricing Decrees 18
Drug Price Inflation 19
Reimbursement Regime 20
Table: Pharmacist discount related to annual sales revenue (VAT excluded) 21
Industry Developments 22
Epidemiology 22
Non-Communicable Diseases 22
Healthcare Sector 23
Healthcare Insurance 24
Healthcare Infrastructure 25
Healthcare Financing 26
Research & Development 26
Clinical Trials Industry 27
Medical Devices Industry 28
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Overall Market Forecast 31
Table: Turkey Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts 33
Healthcare Market Forecast 34
Table: Turkey Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts 35
Table: Turkey Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts 36
Table: Turkey Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts 36
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 37
Table: Turkey - Economic Activity 41
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 42
Table: Turkey Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts 43
Patented Drug Market Forecast 44
Generic Drug Market Forecast 45
Table: Turkey Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts 46
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 47
Table: Turkey Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 48
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 49
Table: Turkey Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn) 49
Table: Turkey Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (TRYmn) 50
Medical Device Market Forecast 51
Table: Turkey Medical Device Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts 52
Other Healthcare Data 53
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecasts 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Pharmaceutical Sector 54
Domestic Industry 55
Foreign Industry 55
Company Activity 56
Wholesale 57
Retail 58
Company Profiles 60
Local Companies 60
Abdi Ibrahim 60
Eczacibasi Pharmaceuticals 63
Sanovel Pharmaceuticals 66
Deva (EastPharma) 68
Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi (MN) Pharmaceuticals 71
Multinational Companies 74
Novartis 74
Pfizer 75
Sanofi 77
GlaxoSmithKline 79
Roche 81
AstraZeneca 83
Bayer 84
Merck & Co 86
Demographic Outlook 88
TURKEY - Population By Age Group 89
TURKEY - Population By Age Group 90
TURKEY - Key Population Ratios 91
TURKEY - Rural and Urban Population 91
Glossary 92
BMI Methodology 94
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 94
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 95
Ratings Overview 95
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 96
Weighting 97
Table: Weighting Of Components 97
Sources 97
Company Profiles
Local Companies
Abdi Ibrahim
Eczacibasi Pharmaceuticals
Sanovel Pharmaceuticals
Deva (EastPharma)
Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi (MN) Pharmaceuticals
Multinational Companies
Novartis
Pfizer
Sanofi
GlaxoSmithKline
Roche
AstraZeneca
Bayer
Merck & Co
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