Uganda Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2356117
- December 2012
- Region: Uganda
- 39 pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI View: While geographic diversification and investment into the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector of emerging economies such as Uganda may be a favourable strategy for any multinational pharmaceutical company - it is vital that a company recognises both the rewards and the risks present in a market. With regards to assessing risks in the Ugandan healthcare sector, we have identified industry specific dangers (such as low per-capita spending and poor access to healthcare facilities) and those emanating from the state's political/economic profile (such as high inflation) that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: UGX676bn (US$268mn) in 2011 to UGX794bn (US$322mn) in 2012;
+14.8% growth in local currency terms and +17.3% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: UGX3,942bn (US$1.56bn) in 2011 to UGX4,519bn (US$1.83bn) in 2012; 14.6
%growth in local currency terms and 17.1% in US dollar terms.
In BMI's Q113 BERs, Uganda is ranked 24th in the Middle East and Africa
(MEA) region. While factors such as population growth and increasing healthcare needs will create a growing demand for pharmaceuticals, we note that a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Uganda in a similarly low position in the MEA matrix over the coming months.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In October 2012, the Ugandan government's move of doubling the monthly pay for doctors working in health centres IVs to UGX2.5mn (US$989.5) was welcomed by doctors. However,
other civil servants' salaries should also be increased, Workers MP Marion Tunde told New Vision. Tunde also warned the government against discriminatory increase of salaries to particular categories of civil servants. Salary increments to doctors have been given to stop them from going out of the country in search of better pay. According to research, most of the Ugandan doctors are employed in Rwanda, followed by South Africa.
- In September 2012, the Ugandan health ministry launched a national vaccination programme against cervical cancer with US drug giant Merck & Co's human papillomavirus quadrivalent recombinant vaccine Gardasil. The first phase of the two-year programme will vaccinate eligible girls within age range 9 to 13 years in 12 districts, including Isingiro, Mityana, Rukungiri,
Nebbi, Oyam, Ntungama and Lira. The vaccination exercise, which is supported by Merck's subsidiary Merck Sharp & Dohme, will deliver 460,000 doses of Gardasil, sufficient to vaccinate approximately 140,000 eligible girls.
- In August 2012, it was reported that a survey conducted in Ugandan districts of Ntungamo, Lira,
Mayuge, Kamuli and Old Kampala exposed 2,307 incompetent nurses treating patients in the regions. The investigation conducted by the Medicines and Health Service Delivery Monitoring Unit found that the nurses in question had been passed by eight illegal nurse training schools during the last 10 years. The survey also found that most of the students in the training schools were below the legal age of 18 years.
BMI Economic View:
As we had expected, the Bank of Uganda has elected to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 200 basis points, on the back of a sharp decline in headline and core inflation, largely due to statistical base effects. While we expect some further loosening in the months ahead, future cuts should be less aggressive, due to the fact that disinflation is set to slow and the shilling is under pressure.
BMI Political View: The political pressure groups 'Action For Change' and 'For God And My Country'
continue to stage demonstrations in protest against alleged corruption, incompetence and abuse of power by the government, with particular vitriol directed at sitting President Yoweri Museveni. While we do not believe that the protests represent a significant security risk, the increasingly heated rhetoric may complicate policymaking over the medium term and may serve as a bellwether for the future electoral difficulties for the ruling party. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 7
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 7
Market Summary 10
Regulatory Regime 12
Intellectual Property Issues 12
Healthcare Provision 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 18
Healthcare Market Forecast 19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 22
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 22
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 23
Macroeconomic Outlook 24
Table: A Rough Fiscal Year 28
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity 28
Demographic Outlook 29
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 30
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 31
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 32
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 32
BMI Methodology 35
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 35
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 36
Ratings Overview 36
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 37
Table: Weighting Of Components 38