Venezuela Information Technology Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2356120
- December 2012
- Region: Venezuela
- 60 pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI View: BMI has revised its Venezuela IT forecasts, and there remain downside risks due to macroeconomic factors. In 2013, much will depend on the economic and political situation, especially given the re-election of President Hugo Chávez and its impact on business confidence. Our forecast also takes into account the threat of a further devaluation of the bolívar. Venezuela is one of the smaller markets in its region, but a PC penetration rate of around 20% indicates the underlying potential for growth. Government PC programmes will boost sales, although most units will be procured locally.
There are areas of opportunity in terms of continued investment by small- and medium-sized enterprises,
due in part to a government tax subsidy, and spending by the energy, retail and financial services sectors.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Computer hardware sales: From US$1.3bn in 2012 to US$1.2bn in 2013, a fall of 8.1%. Our forecast in US dollar terms has been downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors. Given a difficult trading context, the main long-term sales driver is greater affordability, partly as a result of cheap computer programmes, while the PCs for schools programmes is another market driver.
Software sales: From US$357 in 2012 to US$339 in 2013, down 5.0%. Our forecast in US dollar terms has been downwardly revised due to analyst modification. The government's commitment to open source software will constrain opportunities for proprietary software vendors.
IT services sales: From US$311mn in 2012 to US$297mn in 2013, down 4.5%. Our forecast in US dollar terms has been downwardly revised. About 75% of demand will come from large companies,
with the oil sector still significant despite the fall in oil prices.
Venezuela's score of 49.2 out of 100.0 keeps it in last place in our rankings, reflecting our view that the economic situation and business environment in the country are unfavourable for IT spending growth.
Key Trends & Developments:
- We believe that high inflation, a lack of investment into the productive sectors of the economy and an upcoming local currency devaluation will lead to slower growth in 2013. However,
Venezuelan computer shipments are likely to receive support from the government's affordable computer programmes, computers for education initiatives and more local production of inexpensive computers.
-The re-election of President Hugo Chávez is likely to see a continuation of support for open source software. The promotion of open source software is a core Venezuelan government IT policy, although the government has said that open source adoption by public sector organisations has been hindered by 'worker opposition'. In April 2012, the Venezuelan government's IT centre CNTI signed an agreement with internal auditing watchdog Sunai to monitor the migration to open source software. The agreement will last for two years.
- The private business sector will offer opportunities, and continued deployment of fixed and mobile broadband will help to drive spending across several market segments. Banks and telecoms operators are expected to continue to spend on IT as they launch service platforms and services. Investment in call centres by many private sector organisations will generate spending on hardware and systems. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Venezuela IT Sector SWOT 7
Venezuela Telecoms Sector SWOT 8
Venezuela Political SWOT 9
Venezuela Economic SWOT 10
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT 10
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Table: Americas IT Risk/Reward Ratings 13
Americas IT Markets Overview 14
IT Penetration 14
Venezuela Market Overview 22
Government Authority 22
Industry Developments 28
Open Source Software 29
IT Policy Framework 30
IP Protection 31
Digital Development 31
Industry Forecast 32
Table: Venezuela IT Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 35
Industry Forecast Internet 36
Table: Venezuela Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Software And Services 39
Macroeconomic Forecast 42
Table: Venezuela – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 44
Company Profiles 45
Oracle Corp 45
Table: Oracle: Selected Acquisitions 49
Venezolana De Industria Technologica 50
Country Snapshot 52
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 53
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 54
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 55
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 55
BMI Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 56
IT Industry 56
IT Ratings – Methodology 57
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators 58
Table: Weighting Of Components 59