Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 60
BMI View: With no domestic energy resources, Hong Kong faces the challenge of meeting growing oil and gas demand through imports alone. Having mainland China on its doorstep helps, as the outlook for Hong Kong is linked directly to that of its parent state.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Hong Kong’s oil and gas sector are:
- Natural gas is still viewed simply as a power generation fuel, but more will be consumed as gasfired capacity expands. Our forecasts are for gas consumption to rise from an estimated 3.97bcm in 2011 to 4.40bcm in 2016 and to 5.25bcm by 2021.
- Hong Kong looks set to receive gas from Central Asia by mid-2012, following a move by China's National Energy Administration (NEA) to speed up China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)'s work on the Shenzhen-Hong Kong gas pipeline. The pipeline is a spur of the Second West-East Pipeline, which was completed in July 2011. Construction work on the second pipeline has started in Shenzhen, China. The completion of the Hong Kong spur will help to diversify the city's gas import sources and will help to improve access to gas.
- The rate of oil products demand growth and imports should match underlying GDP trends closely, although a drive towards energy conservation may lead to a moderation in market expansion. This suggests that oil demand will rise from an estimated 391,000b/d in 2011 to a forecast 467,000b/d by 2016 and to a possible 558,000b/d by 2021. All of this oil will be imported.
- The cost of crude oil imports is put at US$15.86bn in 2012, rising to US$15.90bn in 2016 and to US$18.65bn by 2021. However, Hong Kong actually imports refined petroleum products,
meaning that the import bill is far higher than for crude. Natural gas imports in 2012 will cost an estimated US$2.10bn, and will total US$2.39bn by 2021. The total cost of crude oil and gas imports by the end of the forecast period in 2021 will be US$21.03bn. We assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.5/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Hong Kong Oil & Gas SWOT 6
Industry Forecast Scenario 7
Oil And Gas Reserves 7
Table: Hong Kong Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 7
Table: Hong Kong Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 8
Oil Supply And Demand 9
Table: Hong Kong Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 9
Table: Hong Kong Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 10
Gas Supply And Demand 11
Table: Hong Kong Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 11
Table: Hong Kong Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 13
LNG 15
Refining And Oil Products Trade 15
Table: Hong Kong Refining Production And Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 15
Table: Hong Kong Refining Production And Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021 16
Revenues/Import Costs 16
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 16
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 17
Service Stations 17
Oil Storage And Terminals 17
Gas Pipelines 17
Country Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 18
Hong Kong Upstream Rating – Overview 18
Hong Kong Upstream Rating – Rewards 18
Hong Kong Upstream Rating – Risks 18
Hong Kong Downstream Rating – Overview 18
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings 19
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Competitive Landscape 26
Executive Summary 26
Table: Key Players – Hong Kong Oil & Gas Sector 27
Overview/State Role 27
Licensing And Regulation 27
International Energy Relations 27
Table: Key Downstream Players 27
Company Profiles 28
Shell – Summary 28
Chevron – Summary 28
ExxonMobil – Summary 28
Sinopec/China Resources – Summary 28
CLP – Summary 29
HK Electric – Summary 30
HKCGC – Summary 30
Regional Energy Market Outlook 31
Table: Number Of Rigs In Operation In Asia 32
Global Energy Market Outlook 37
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts – A Comparison 39
Asia – Regional Appendix 43
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 43
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 43
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 44
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 45
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 46
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 46
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 47
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 48
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 48
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 49
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 50
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 50
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 51
Glossary Of Terms 52
Table: Glossary Of Terms 52
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 54
Ratings Overview 54
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 55
Indicators 55
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 55
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 56
BMI Methodology 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 58
Energy Industry 58
Cross checks 59
Sources 59
Company Profiles
Shell – Summary
Chevron – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Sinopec/China Resources – Summary
CLP – Summary
HK Electric – Summary
HKCGC – Summary
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