Italy Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2356144
  • December 2012
  • Region: Italy
  • 72 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI's Italy Defence & Security Report for Q113 examines the country's defence posture, defence procurement and defence industry. The report seeks to examine how the Italian government is attempting to balance its defence budget amid the country's sluggish economic performance.

The report details the Italian armed forces structure, including its order of battle. In addition, it examines the government's efforts to streamline the size of the armed forces, and better configure them to perform out-of-area operations. The report also discusses Italy's long-term procurement plans, and the country's recent procurement trends.

Italy's defence sector faces a number of distinct challenges in the near future. The country is performing a protracted reorientation of its strategic posture to essentially reconfigure its armed forces from their erstwhile NATO posture – which sought to defend the southern part of the European continent against Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact aggression – into an adaptable and agile force able to rapidly project power beyond Italy's borders. For this strategic aspiration to become a reality, the Italian government is pursuing a number of projects READ MORE >

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  • AgustaWestland
  • Avio
  • Company Profiles
  • Fincantieri
  • Finmeccanica
  • MBDA
  • MORE

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Italy Security SWOT 6

Italy Political SWOT 7

Italy Economic SWOT 8

Italy Business Environment SWOT 9

Global Political Outlook 0

Europe Security Overview 3

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 13

Europe In A Global Context 13

Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 13

The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 13

EU Expansion 14

NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 14

Post-Qadhafi Libya 15

Relations With Russia 16

Relations With Turkey 16

The Balkans 17

Organised Crime 17

Islamist Terrorism 18

The Greater Black Sea Region 18

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 19

Security Risk Analysis 1

BMI's Security Ratings 21
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 21
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 22

Political Outlook 4

Domestic Politics 24

Monti Legacy Secure Despite Rise In Populism 24

Long-Term Political Outlook 26

Fiscal Rebalancing To Weigh On Social Cohesion 26

Italy Security Overview 9

Internal Security Situation 29

Organised Crime 29

Latest Developments 31

Timeline: Internal Threats 31
Table: Insurgent Groups 32

External Security Situation 32

International Terrorism 32

Latest Developments 34

Timeline: External Threats 34

Armed Forces And Government Spending 7

Defence Decision Making 37

Grand Strategy 37

Order of Battle 37

Defence Modernisation 43

International Deployments and Joint Exercises 46
Table: Italy's Foreign Deployments 47

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 47

Market Overview 0

Arms Trade Overview 50

Procurement Trends and Developments 53
Table: Italy's Key Defence Players 55

Industry Forecast Scenario 6
Table: Italy's Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 ('000, unless otherwise stated) 56
Table: Italy's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 56

Defence Expenditure 57
Table: Italy's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 57
Table: Italy's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 57
Table: Italy's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 58
Table: Italy's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 58
Table: Italy's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 58

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 58

Macroeconomic Forecast 59

Economy To Flatline In 2013 59
Table: Italy – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2009-2016 61

Company Profiles 2

AgustaWestland 62

Avio 64

Fincantieri 65

Finmeccanica 67


Methodology 0

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 70

Defence Industry 70

Sources 71

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Company Profiles

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