Angola Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2356163
- December 2012
- Region: Angola
- 42 pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI View: Angola’s general election in late August 2012 brought few changes to the country’s political scene, with incumbent President Dos Santos securing a comfortable victory. Fears of civil unrest were unfounded, and for current and potential investors, Dos Santos’ re-election will ensure political stability and continuity. Consequently a ‘business-as-usual’ attitude exists. The election results have not altered our market forecasts for Angola’s healthcare and pharmaceutical market. While we expect that there will be an increase in public spending on healthcare initiatives in the short term as the government attempts to fulfil electoral promises, this will be short lived. Angola relies on international investment to fund much of its healthcare development, with Cuba an important contributor, as well as international agencies, such as Unicef, which funded a tetanus vaccination campaign in July 2012. Angola is burdened by both communicable and non-communicable diseases.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts:
- Pharmaceuticals: AOA26.78bn (US$286mn) in 2011 to AOA30.53bn (US$325mn) in 2012;
+14.0% in local currency and +13.9% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: AOA479.95bn (US$5.12bn) in 2011 to AOA587.26bn (US$6.26bn) in 2012;
+22.4% in local currency and +22.2% in US dollar terms.
- Medical Devices: AOA19.06bn (US$203mn) in 2011 to AOA22.79mn (US$243mn) in 2012;
+19.6% in local currency and +19.5% in US dollar terms.
Angola scores 34.8 out of 100 in the Q113 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) and ranks 26th out of 30 in BMI’s Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional ratings. This is below the regional average of 44.2. Angola has below average scores in all categories,
with the exception of country rewards, for which it has a score of 63 out of 100.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In September 2012 the Ministry of Health ordered a ban on the use of injectable ciprofloxacin,
manufactured by China’s Jiangsu Kangao Pharmaceutical, because of variations in the drug’s features. Authorities in Malange withdrew two tonnes of the drug from sale in October 2012.
- Angola hosted its first National Conference on Traditional Medicines in August 2012.
Participants recommended the ‘urgent’ approval of a national policy on the use of traditional medicines and complimentary practices.
- The government plans to start a national pre-elimination of malaria in the country in 2015. It will cooperate with Namibia to lower the incidence of the disease.
BMI Economic View: Angola’s economy is booming, with BMI forecasting just under double-digit GDP growth of 9.9% in 2012 and similar amounts for 2013. A rebound in oil exports is bolstering Angola’s economy, and given that 2012 is an election year, public spending is also increasing (even if it is only in the short term). Much of the wealth generated by oil has not brought benefits to the majority of Angolans, however, with youth unemployment a concern.
BMI Political View:
There were few changes on Angola’s political scene following general elections on August 31 2012. Despite some claims of irregularities, President Dos Santos obtained a healthy 72% of the vote and there was little civil unrest in the run up, or the aftermath, of the elections, suggesting that Angolans are happy to continue along the same lines. For businesses, Dos Santos has made only minimal changes to his cabinet, so Angola’s appeal to investors is unlikely to change as continuity reigns. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Angola Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT 7
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 8
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 8
Market Summary 11
Regulatory Regime 13
Intellectual Property Issues 13
Pricing And Reimbursement 13
Regulatory Developments 14
Clinical Trials Sector 17
Industry Forecast Scenario 18
Overall Market Forecast 18
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 19
Key Growth Factors – Industry 20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016 22
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016 22
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016 23
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 24
Table: Angola – Economic Activity 27
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 28
Competitive Landscape 29
Company Developments 29
Company Profiles 31
Demographic Outlook 32
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 33
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 34
Table: Angola's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 35
Table: Angola's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 35
BMI Methodology 38
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 38
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 39
Ratings Overview 39
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 40
Table: Weighting Of Components 41