Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 83
The Bulgarian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concern about the impact on Bulgaria’s economic outlook of a domestic banking sector highly exposed to peripheral eurozone banks.
The report looks at how best to maximise returns in the Bulgarian retail market while minimising investment risk. We also explore the impact of weakening demand from the eurozone on the Bulgarian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
BMI also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bulgarian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Bulgarian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 17% between 2013 and 2017,
compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country is eighth out of 10 in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) retail risk/reward ratings, largely owing to its modest GDP per capita. However,
10th-placed Croatia’s small population, lack of modern retail space and lengthy bureaucratic procedures mean Bulgaria is unlikely to move down the table over the forecast period.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, owing to relatively low household penetration rates for digital product groups such as notebook computers (30% CAGR projected) and LCD TV sets (17% CAGR). BMI forecasts a 20% increase in sales, from US$1.41bn in 2013 to US$1.70bn by 2016.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the influx of EU funds helping to boost spending on computers and drive information and social development.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI expects the Bulgarian economy to slow in H212 as demand from the eurozone weakens,
forecasting full-year real GDP growth of 0.1%. Conversely, we expect a recovery in the bloc,
coupled with some fiscal loosening ahead of 2013’s parliamentary elections, to drive GDP growth of 1.4% in 2013.
- BMI forecasts private consumption growth of 0.7% and 1.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
Having contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q112, household spending made a robust recovery in Q212 as it grew by 4.0% q-o-q. Although wage growth has slowed from 8.2
%at the beginning of 2012 to 4.4% in June (on a three-month moving average basis), it has remained positive in real terms. We also expect fiscal policy to be supportive of households as the government prepares for parliamentary elections in 2013.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Bulgaria Retail Business Environment SWOT 6
Bulgaria Political SWOT 7
Bulgaria Economic SWOT 7
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT 8
Market Overview 9
Current Trends 10
Key Players 13
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Retail Growth Outlook 17
Table: Bulgaria Retail, 2008-2016 18
Table: Retail Sales By Sector, 2013f 20
Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity 24
Regional Retail Outlook 25
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook 25
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016 25
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated) 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 27
Regional Retail Trends 27
Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings 35
Bulgaria’s Retail Rating 37
Limits To Potential Returns 37
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 37
Mass Grocery Retail 38
Bulgaria Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 38
Market Overview 38
Leading Retailers 39
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets, 2002-2011 42
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, 2002-2011 42
Table: Value Sales By Individual Outlet Type (2011) 43
Industry Forecast Scenario 43
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 45
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format 45
Industry Developments 46
Consolidation In MGR In Line With Wider Regional Trends 46
Discount Players Invest In Expansion In Bulgaria 47
Companies Experiment With New Store Formats 47
Large Retailers Accused Of Pressurising Local Producers 48
Consumer Electronics 49
Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 49
Market Overview 50
Computers 51
Table: PC Sales 51
AV 55
Table: AV Sales 55
Mobile Handsets 59
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 59
Consumer Electronics Market 63
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 64
Industry Developments 65
Automotives 68
Bulgaria Auto Industry SWOT 68
Market Overview 69
Industry Forecast Scenario 70
Table: Bulgaria Auto Production And Sales, 2009-2016 70
Industry Developments 72
Regulation 73
Component Production 74
Table: Component Production 74
Commercial Vehicles 75
Demographic Outlook 77
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 78
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 80
BMI Methodology 81
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 81
Sources 82
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
