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Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2013

  • Published: December 2012
  • Region: Bulgaria
  • 83 pages
  • Business Monitor International

The Bulgarian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concern about the impact on Bulgaria’s economic outlook of a domestic banking sector highly exposed to peripheral eurozone banks.

The report looks at how best to maximise returns in the Bulgarian retail market while minimising investment risk. We also explore the impact of weakening demand from the eurozone on the Bulgarian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

BMI also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bulgarian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Bulgarian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 17% between 2013 and 2017,
compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country is eighth out of 10 in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) retail risk/reward ratings, largely owing to its modest GDP per capita. However,
10th-placed Croatia’s small population, lack of modern retail space and lengthy bureaucratic procedures mean READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Bulgaria Retail Business Environment SWOT 6

Bulgaria Political SWOT 7

Bulgaria Economic SWOT 7

Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT 8

Market Overview 9

Current Trends 10

Key Players 13

Industry Forecast Scenario 15

Consumer Outlook 15

Retail Growth Outlook 17
Table: Bulgaria Retail, 2008-2016 18
Table: Retail Sales By Sector, 2013f 20

Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity 24

Regional Retail Outlook 25

Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook 25
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016 25
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated) 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 27

Regional Retail Trends 27

Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings 35

Bulgaria’s Retail Rating 37

Limits To Potential Returns 37

Risks To Realisation Of Returns 37

Mass Grocery Retail 38

Bulgaria Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 38

Market Overview 38

Leading Retailers 39
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets, 2002-2011 42
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, 2002-2011 42
Table: Value Sales By Individual Outlet Type (2011) 43

Industry Forecast Scenario 43
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 45
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format 45

Industry Developments 46

Consolidation In MGR In Line With Wider Regional Trends 46

Discount Players Invest In Expansion In Bulgaria 47

Companies Experiment With New Store Formats 47

Large Retailers Accused Of Pressurising Local Producers 48

Consumer Electronics 49

Bulgaria Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 49

Market Overview 50

Computers 51
Table: PC Sales 51

AV 55
Table: AV Sales 55

Mobile Handsets 59
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 59

Consumer Electronics Market 63
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 64

Industry Developments 65

Automotives 68

Bulgaria Auto Industry SWOT 68

Market Overview 69

Industry Forecast Scenario 70
Table: Bulgaria Auto Production And Sales, 2009-2016 70

Industry Developments 72

Regulation 73

Component Production 74
Table: Component Production 74

Commercial Vehicles 75

Demographic Outlook 77
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 78
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 80

BMI Methodology 81

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 81

Sources 82

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