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Cameroon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 38
BMI View: Cameroon will continue to languish near the bottom of our proprietary Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings for the Middle East and Africa region due to the country’s low per capita healthcare and pharmaceutical expenditure, as well as the overall low pharmaceutical expenditure. The situation is further complicated by poor intellectual property protection, slow approval processes and rampant corruption. Consequently we do not expect the market to be of significant interest to multinational pharmaceutical firms.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: XAF106.7bn (US$226mn) in 2011 to XAF114.9bn (US$223mn) in 2012;
+7.7% in local currency terms and -1.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q412.
- Healthcare: XAF642.8bn (US$1.36bn) in 2011 to XAF697.1bn (US$1.35bn) in 2012; +8.4% in local currency terms and -0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q412.
Risk/Reward Ratings: With a RRR score of 31.5, a decline from 34.2 in Q412, Cameroon slipped from 26th to 27th place this quarter within the 30-country MEA region. Key threats in the pharmaceutical market remain, such as rampant corruption, low per capita healthcare expenditure and the general inaccessibility to pharmaceuticals. Considering that it is near the bottom of our proprietary index for the MEA region, we do not expect multinational drugmakers to make significant investments in the country.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In September 2012, Urbain Olanguena Awono, former Minister of Public Health appeared before the Mfoundi High Court due to alleged embezzlement. The questions from the defence lawyers and prosecution focused on the management of funds for the supply of mosquito bed nets, management of money from the Global Fund for the Fight Against HIV/AIDS and the publication of a book on HIV/AIDS, to which he pleaded his innocence.
- In the same month, Dr. Allan Pamba, director of public engagement and access initiatives for GlaxoSmithKline, met up with representatives from the Cameroon Baptist Convention Health Services to discuss a possible partnership between the two organisations. Dr. Pamba stated that he will be going back to Cameroon again to finalise this long-term partnership.
BMI Economic View:
We believe that given the large infrastructure projects underway in Cameroon, the government's expenditures will stay elevated over the coming years. However, this will be offset by rising revenues from oil, and we expect a rather modest budget deficit. We are forecasting the budget shortfall to be equal to 0.6% of GDP in both 2012 and 2013.
BMI Political View:
Over the next 10 years, the single greatest uncertainty facing Cameroon is how a transition from the leadership of President Paul Biya, who has ruled since 1982, will be managed. Despite this significant risk – and smaller challenges such as piracy – Cameroon is fundamentally relatively stable, leading to our expectation for broad political continuity.
Executive Summary 5
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 7
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 7
Cameroon – Market Overview 11
Regulatory Regime 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 13
Overall Market Forecast 13
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 15
Key Growth Factors – Healthcare 16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016 19
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016 19
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016 20
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 21
Table: Cameroon – Economic Activity 25
Competitive Landscape 26
Industry And Company Developments 26
Demographic Outlook 28
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 29
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-202 0 (% of total) 30
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 31
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 31
BMI Methodology 34
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 34
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 35
Ratings Overview 35
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 36
Table: Weighting Of Components 37