Turkey Retail Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 97
The Turkey Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Turkey's economic outlook of tight monetary policy and the economy's vulnerability to higher oil prices.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Turkish retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of depressed economic activity in the eurozone, the US and China on the Turkish consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Turkish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Turkish per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 34% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes fifth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to reach US$10.49bn in 2013, and to grow by 53.5% between 2013 and 2016 to US$16.10bn as growth potential is realised in key digital products groups such as computers (10
%penetration), notebook computers, digital cameras and LCD TV sets.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government information society initiatives and computers for schools programmes that will help shape and support the market.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- According to the most recent data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute, real GDP growth in Turkey slowed to 2.9% y-o-y in the second quarter of 2012, down from 3.3% in the first quarter and 9.1% in the second quarter of 2011. The most recent GDP print supports BMI's long-held view that headline growth would continue to slow following the stellar growth chalked up in 2010 and 2011, and we remain confident of our full-year forecast of 3.0% for 2012. We expect domestic economic activity to remain subdued, and this underpins our expectation for only a slight pick-up in real GDP growth in 2013 to 4.7%, still well below the 9.1% and 8.5
%growth readings registered in 2010 and 2011 respectively
- While depressed regional and global economic confidence has played a role in weakening household spending, the major factor underpinning the slowdown has been the central bank's tight monetary stance which was maintained for the lion's share of 2012. Given that the central bank has begun to ease policy, this will help household expenditure to pick up towards the end of 2012, and BMI currently targets FY12 growth of 2.7% (equivalent to a 1.85 percentage point
(pp) contribution to headline growth).
- That said, the recovery process for the consumer is set to remain prolonged, with growth of only 4.0% and 4.3% pencilled in for 2013 and 2014 respectively in household expenditure, well below the 7.7% growth recorded in 2011.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Turkey Retail Business Environment SWOT 7
Turkey Political SWOT 8
Turkey Economic SWOT 8
Market Overview 9
Current Trends 11
Key Players 13
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Consumer Outlook 16
Retail Growth Outlook 19
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 19
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f 21
Organised Retail 21
Macroeconomic Outlook 22
Table: Economic Activity, 2011-2016 25
Regional Retail Outlook 26
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated) 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016 28
Regional Retail Trends 28
Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings 36
Turkey's Retail Rating 37
Limits of Potential Returns 37
Risks to Realisation of Returns 38
Mass Grocery Retail 39
Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 39
Market Overview 40
Leading Retailers 41
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Number Of Outlets 42
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format (TRYbn) 42
Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet 2011 42
Industry Forecast Scenario 43
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts 44
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format 45
Industry Developments 45
Consumer Electronics 50
Turkey Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 50
Market Overview 50
Computers 52
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016 52
AV 55
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 55
Mobile Handsets 58
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 58
Industry Forecast Scenario 62
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 63
Industry Developments 64
Automotives 67
Turkey Autos Industry SWOT 67
Market Overview 67
Industry Forecast Scenario 74
Table: Automotive Production, 2010-2017 74
Table: Automotive Sales, 2010-2017 74
Market Developments 77
Trade 79
Table: Automotive Trade, 2010-2017 79
Industry Developments 82
Suppliers 88
Demographic Outlook 91
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 92
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) 93
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 94
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 94
BMI Methodology 95
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 95
Sources 96
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