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Pakistan Defence and Security Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Pakistan Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

  • Published: December 2012
  • Region: Pakistan
  • 86 pages
  • Business Monitor International

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BMI's Pakistan Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country's strategic position in the Asian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report also examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement,
and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that Pakistan remains trapped in a cycle of political instability, economic malaise and Islamist militancy, with little hope of the situation improving in the short to medium term.

Domestically, the country continues to battle serious insurgencies in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and also in Balochistan. While US drone strikes and Pakistan Army operations have continued in the FATA, a much-needed operation in North Waziristan - the base of the Haqqani Network and other militant groups - has been postponed indefinitely. This decision will also be of great irritation to the US government, at a time when it is attempting to mend its severely strained relationship with Pakistan.

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Pakistan Security SWOT 7

Pakistan Defence Industry SWOT 8

Pakistan Political SWOT 9

Pakistan Economic SWOT 10

Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 11

Global Political Outlook 12

South East Asia Security Overview 17

South Asia In A Global Context 17

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 17

The Outlook For South Asia 30

Security Risk Analysis 32
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 32
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 33

Political Overview 34

Domestic Politics 34

Foreign Policy 36

Long-Term Political Outlook 39

Security Overview 42

Internal Security Situation 42

External Security Situation 52

Armed Forces And Government Spending 57

Armed Forces 57

Deployments And Exercises 58
Table: Pakistan's Deployments 59

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 60
Table: Pakistan's Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile Arsenal 62

Nuclear Developments 62
Table: Exports From Pakistan 64

Market Overview 65

Arms Trade Overview 66

Industry Trends And Developments 67

Procurement Trends And Developments 69

Industry Forecast Scenario 71

Armed Forces 71
Table: Pakistan's Defence Personnel, 2000-2008 ('000, unless otherwise stated) 71
Table: Pakistan's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 71

Defence Expenditure 71
Table: Pakistan's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 72

Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2010-2017 73

Defence Trade 73
Table: Pakistan's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 73
Table: Pakistan's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn, unless stated) 74
Table: Pakistan's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 74

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 75

Macroeconomic Forecast 76
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 78

Company Profiles 79

Air Weapons Complex 79

Dr AQ Khan Laboratories 80

Heavy Industries Taxila 81

Pakistan Aeronautical Complex 82

Pakistan Ordnance Factories 83

BMI Methodology 84

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 84

Defence Industry 84

Sources 85

Company Profiles
Air Weapons Complex
Dr AQ Khan Laboratories
Heavy Industries Taxila
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex
Pakistan Ordnance Factories

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