The Chinese Mining Industry - Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2015
- Published: November 2011
- Region: China
China's IT spending growth is forecast at around 11% in 2013, which is a modest slowdown compared with 2011. Despite an expected deceleration in IT investment and retail spending over the next year, the Communist Party leadership transition is likely to unlock a new wave of IT investment.
Modernisation drives in sectors such as education, healthcare and manufacturing should keep the market in positive trend territory. The government's 12th five-year plan calls for significant modernisation of China's computing infrastructure. Meanwhile, China's strategy to develop the western areas of the country should also drive sales of IT products and services, even if the developed east-coast economy hits a slowdown.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Computer hardware sales: US$80.3bn in 2012 to US$88.3bn in 2013, +10% in US dollar terms.
Forecast downwardly revised in US dollar terms due to macroeconomic factors, following a slowdown in H112.
Software sales: US$16.0bn in 2012 to US$18.1bn in 2013, +13% in US dollar terms. Forecast upwardly revised in US dollar terms due to macroeconomic factors and the growing global ambitions of any Chinese companies, as well as the still-booming domestic market, are fuelling investments in software.
IT services sales: US$26.6bn in 2012 to US$30.5bn in 2013, +15% in US dollar terms. Forecast upwardly revised in US dollar terms due to macroeconomic factors, with growing demand for software and solutions in second and third-tier cities, as enterprises invest to meet the challenges posed by growing demand for their services.
Risk/Reward Ratings: China's score was 48.6 out of 100. China remains sixth in the Asia region in our latest RRR table, ahead of India, Thailand and Vietnam but still behind more developed Asian markets such as Singapore, Australia and Malaysia. The country's relatively low market risk score offset the boost from its IT market size, but China should continue to ride up the rankings over time.
Key Trends & Developments:
- By the end of BMI's five-year forecast period, the rural PC and notebook market could account for as much as 35-40% of total China computer sales. The subsidy programme will continue to boost demand from the vast, under-penetrated rural areas. Lower-tier cities and towns are expected to be the fastest growing segment of the PC market in 2012, although this has placed pressure on prices.
- Tablet notebooks sales were on course to pass 10mn in 2012, more than double the 5mn level in 2011. Price cuts by Apple have helped to drive average tablet prices lower and expand the market, while new releases and seasonal factors were expected to push the total higher in the final quarter of the year. Apple continued to dominate tablet sales in 2012, with above 70% of sales in Q212 but a growing aggressive challenge by domestic vendors such as Lenovo is expected to have an impact on the tablet competitive landscape.
- Under the twelfth five-year plan, China has made it a priority to improve computing infrastructure, including funding the development of cloud computing. The country has observed that its generally sub-optimal IT infrastructure compared with the US and Europe has hindered business development in the mainland. Cloud computing currently accounts for only around 5
%of Chinese IT spending, but growing interest in cloud services will be further stimulated by government pilot programmes in five cities. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Chinese IT Industry SWOT 7
Chinese Telecoms Sector SWOT 8
China Political SWOT 9
China Economic SWOT 10
China Business Environment SWOT 11
Asia Pacific IT Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Table: Asia Pacific IT Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 15
Asia Pacific IT Markets Overview 16
IT Penetration 16
IT Growth and Drivers 18
Sectors And Verticals 20
Market Overview 24
Government Authority 24
Hong Kong 24
Table: China Computer Production 30
IT Services 34
Table: End-User Analysis, China's IT Sector, 2006 37
Industry Developments 38
Industry Forecast 41
Table: China IT Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn Unless Otherwise Stated), 2010-2017 44
Industry Forecast Internet 45
Table: China Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009 - 2016 45
Competitive Landscape 47
IT Services 54
Internet Competitive Landscape 55
Macroeconomic Forecast 56
Table: China - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 58
Company Profiles 59
Kingdee International Software Group 59
Table: Selected Dell Mergers And Acquisitions 67
Lenovo Group Ltd 68
Country Snapshot 74
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 75
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 76
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 77
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 77
BMI Methodology 78
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 78
IT Industry 78
IT Ratings - Methodology 79
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators 80
Table: Weighting Of Components 81
Kingdee International Software Group
Lenovo Group Ltd