Poland Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 61
BMI's Poland Defence & Security Report for Q113 examines the country's strategic position in Europe and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the trials it may face in the future. In addition, the report examines the trends witnessed in the country's current and future defence procurement, and considers the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report's general conclusion is that while some restraints may exist vis-à-vis Polish defence procurement, broadly speaking the country expects to continue the trend of defence modernisation it commenced at the end of the Cold War, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
In the two decades since the end of the Cold War, seeing the collapse of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the country has taken an increasingly active position in international military affairs. As Poland plans to withdraw its combat troops from Afghanistan in the 2014/15 timeframe, in line with NATO's overall goals of ending its military presence there, the country is now contemplating its military posture and doctrine beyond current operations. It seems probable that Poland expects to play an active role in future international military operations at the UN, EU and NATO level. This is particularly true in terms of Special Forces provision which is one of the country's core competencies.
Over the last quarter BMI has provided the following updates:
- A detailed outline of the country's process of defence decision making, and its military and civilian chains of command.
- A full breakdown of the orders of battle of the Polish army, air force and navy, alongside a discussion of major procurement programmes ongoing in all three services.
- A description of procurement activity performed in Q113, notably across the Polish army and air force.
- Updated information regarding Poland's defence budget for 2012.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Poland Security SWOT 6
Poland Defence Industry SWOT 7
Poland Political SWOT 8
Poland Economic SWOT 8
Poland Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Europe Security Overview 15
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 15
Europe In A Global Context 15
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 15
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 15
EU Expansion 16
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 16
Post-Qadhafi Libya 17
Relations With Russia 18
Relations With Turkey 18
The Balkans 19
Organised Crime 19
Islamist Terrorism 20
The Greater Black Sea Region 20
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 21
Security Risk Analysis 23
BMI’s Security Ratings 23
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 23
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 24
Political Overview 26
Domestic Politics 26
Long-Term Political Outlook 27
Poland Security Overview 33
Internal Security Situation 33
External Security Situation 33
Armed Forces And Government Spending 34
Grand Strategy 34
Order of Battle 34
Defence Modernisation 38
International Deployment and Joint Exercises 42
Weapons of Mass Destruction 43
Market Overview 44
Poland Defence & Security Report Q1 2013
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Arms Trade Overview 45
Procurement Trends and Developments 46
Industry Forecast Scenario 47
Armed Forces 47
Table: Poland’s Armed Forces, 2000-2009 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 47
Table: Poland’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 47
Defence Expenditure 48
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 48
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 49
Table: Poland’s Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 50
Table: Poland’s Defence Imports, 2010 -2017 (US$mn) 51
Table: Poland’s Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 51
Macroeconomic Forecast 52
Table: Economic Activity, 2011-2016 54
Company Profiles 55
Bumar 55
HSW 56
WSK PZL Mielec 57
WSK PZL Rzeszow 58
BMI Methodology 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 59
Defence Industry 59
Sources 60
Company Profiles
Bumar
HSW
WSK PZL Mielec
WSK PZL Rzeszow
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