Russia Petrochemicals Industry Outlook to 2015 - Market Size, Company Share, Price Trends and Capacity Forecasts
- Published: May 2011
- Region: Russia
Our Russia petrochemicals report examines the short-term trends in the Russian market and discusses how domestic producers are responding to changing demand dynamics. This report also considers the way in which Russian petrochemicals producers are diversifying and building capacity to compete in a global market, while at the same time supplying a growing industrial base, particularly in the domestic automotive and construction sectors.
Segments of the Russian market will remain import-dependent over the medium-term, although the country will continue to produce an exportable surplus of fertiliser. The government’s drive to address market deficits with the establishment of world-scale, integrated production hubs should lead to greater self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, energy feedstock price liberalisation, particularly in the gas sector, could undermine price competitiveness of Russian petrochemicals production.
A structural change in the economy towards domestic demand-led growth should benefit the petrochemicals industry, which is expected to see polymers capacity exceed 10mn tonnes per annum (tpa)
by 2017, a three-fold increase over 2008. Domestically driven growth should ensure that expansion does not lead to an imbalance between supply and demand, although in some segments there is the prospect of exports.
- A number of projects are set for completion in 2013 that should help Russia achieve its mediumterm goals. Many of these are in the plastics and rubbers sector, including 60,000tpa of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), 500,000tpa PP and 330,000tpa PVC.
- Over the next five years, polyethylene (PE) will lead polymer capacity growth, accounting for a total of 62% of the increase with roughly equal contributions from different segments.
Polypropylene (PP) with contribute a further 22%, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) 11%, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) 4% and polystyrene (PS) 1%. BMI believes the growth mix is highly suited to the nature of the Russian petrochemicals market over the medium-term, which should boost consumption of consumer plastics.
- In 2017, we expect ethylene capacity to total 7.7mn tpa. However, some segments will see little or no movement, notably styrenics and some intermediates such as EO/EG and ethylbenzene.
There is plenty of potential naphtha and ethane feedstock availability due to the expansion of refineries and the opportunities presented by a growing gas sector.
- With a petrochemicals rating of 65.1 points, Russia’s commanding position in our petrochemicals risk/reward ratings (RRRs) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been recovering as its risks decline and capacity increases. Its score has increased 1.4 points in the past quarter as a result of ongoing expansion of petrochemicals capacities, which could double over the next five years. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
Russia Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 7
Russia Political SWOT Analysis 8
Russia Economic SWOT Analysis 8
Russia Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview 10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 15
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 19
European Petrochemicals Overview 24
Russia Market Overview 28
Petrochemicals Trade 30
Market Structure 30
Table: Russia's Cracker Capacity Data - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016, ('000 tpa) 31
Foreign Investment 31
Petrochemicals Risk/ Reward Ratings 32
Central and Eastern European Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 34
Russia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Industry Trends and Developments 36
Olefins and Aromatics 39
Polymers and intermediates 41
Industry Forecast Scenario 44
Table: Russia's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 47
Macroeconomic Outlook 49
Table: Russia - Economic Activity 52
Company Profiles 53
Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK) 56
Sibur Holding 59
Glossary Of Terms 62
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 62
Country Snapshot 63
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 64
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 65
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 66
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 66
BMI Methodology 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 67
Cross Checks 68
Business Environment Ratings 68
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70