Sudan and South Sudan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2372978
- January 2013
- Region: Sudan
- 40 pages
- Business Monitor International
Sudan and South Sudan's will continue to be of least interest to foreign pharmaceutical firms in the Middle East and North Africa region as the countries are plagued by high inflation, fiscal constraints and underdeveloped non-oil economies. Political risk remains elevated as many disputes between them are still unresolved. These macroeconomic uncertainties will mean lack of focus on public healthcare provision, which further complicates the problem that the general population are unable to afford expensive pharmaceuticals.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: SDG1.49bn (US$556mn) in 2011 to SDG1.93bn (US$472mn) in 2012;
30.0% in local currency terms with a contraction of 15.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
- Healthcare: SDG11.01bn (US$4.12mn) in 2011 to SDG13.44bn (US$3.29bn) in 2012; +22.0
%in local currency terms and -20% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q412's, due to reassessment of historic values.
BMI rates Sudan as the most unattractive market in the Middle East and Africa
(MEA) region, highlighted by its score of 20.8 out of 100. With the exception of a relatively large pensionable population, Sudan has a small pharmaceutical market expected to contract until the end of 2013, with annual per capita spending on pharmaceutical drugs set at less than US$20. The population is largely rural and restless and, given the country's state of war and population dispersion between Sudan and South Sudan, we forecast poor population and market growth prospects. We highlight that economic and political stability are greater determinants of the country's investment attractiveness than their need for medicines and disease profile. Currency weakness, high inflation, a restless population, political unrest and security issues are dragging on economic activity and making the operating environment difficult for local and foreign drugmakers. Sudan's fragmented regulatory framework with poor intellectual property protection and a weak pricing and reimbursement scheme, in addition to mainly outof-
pocket expenditure on healthcare, means entry into the market and revenue-earning potential for multinationals will be a significant challenge.
Key Trends & Developments:
- In October 2012, Indian multi-specialty hospital group MIOT Hospitals' chairman, Mallika Mohandas, said that it intends to build a hospital in Sudan. The Sudanese government and private companies have shown interest in MIOT establishing a hospital. MIOT is likely to begin the project in 2013, building a hospital with 300 beds.
- In the same month, Vimal Wakhlu, chairman and managing director for Telecommunication Consultants India Limited, disclosed that South Sudan will soon benefit from tele-medicines projects funded by the Indian government underits 'Pan Africa e-Network' project.
BMI Economic View:
We have downgraded our growth forecasts for Sudan's economy, and we now expect a steeper contraction, of 5.3%, compared to previous estimates of a 1.4% decline. This is expected to improve to positive 2.1% growth in 2013, another downward revision from our previous estimates of 3.4%, on the back of what we believe will be a slow and difficult transition into an economy which is not based on oil.
BMI Political View:
More than a year after South Sudan's secession, the agreements reached by the presidents of the north and south in late September 2012 amount to limited progress, with the key politico-military issues left almost entirely unresolved. Even if a final settlement is agreed between the political actors, military hawks could derail implementation. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 7
Table: Middle East and Africa - Q113 Risk-Reward Ratings Matrix 7
Sudan Languishes In MEA Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Market Summary 12
Regulatory Regime 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
Assessing The Value Of Sudan And South Sudan's Pharmaceutical Market 15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 19
Industry Developments 20
Healthcare Market Forecast 21
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016 23
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016 24
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016 25
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic 25
Demographic Outlook 30
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 31
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 32
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 33
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 33
BMI Methodology 36
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 36
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 37
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 37
Ratings Overview 37
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 38
Table: Weighting Of Components 39