Sudan Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2372979
  • January 2013
  • Region: Sudan
  • 63 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI's Sudan Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the strategic position of the Republic of Sudan and the newly independent state of the Republic of South Sudan, both in the African region and the context of the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and considers the challenges it may face in the future.

The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement,
and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report also looks at the security implications of South Sudanese independence, with the new country having formally split away from Sudan in June 2011.

The report's general conclusion is that, while the situation remains extremely fragile, Sudan and South Sudan have made some important progress - not without considerable pressure being applied by the UN and by the African Union - following peace talks in Addis Ababa that concluded in late September 2012. Oil has been a key consideration, and the agreement of transit fees for the transportation of South Sudanese oil through Sudan was a breakthrough that gives both sides strong economic incentive READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Sudan Security SWOT 7

Sudan Defence Industry SWOT 8

South Sudan Security SWOT 8

Sudan Political SWOT 9

Sudan Economic SWOT 10

Sudan Business Environment SWOT 11

Global Political Outlook 12

East and Central Africa Security Overview 17

Strategic Outlook for 2010s 17

Population Explosion: 17

Food Security: 18

Ethiopia And Eritrea: 19

Kenya: 20

Sudan And South Sudan: 21

Somalia: 22

Tanzania: 23

Uganda: 23

Security Risk Analysis 24
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 24
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 25

Political Overview 26

Foreign Policy 26

Security Overview 31

Internal Security Overview 31

Conflict In Darfur 31

Justice And Equality Movement 37

North-South Civil War 38

Security Threat In South Sudan 43

External Security Situation 45

Sudan, South Sudan And Uganda 45

Sudan, South Sudan And The United States 46

Sudan And Ethiopia 46

South Sudan And The East Africa Community 47

Sudan, Iran And Israel 47

Armed Forces 49

Arms Trade Overview 50

Industry Forecast Scenario 52

Armed Forces 52
Table: Sudan's Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 52
Table: Sudan's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 52

Defence Expenditure 52
Table: Sudan's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 53
Table: Sudan's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 53

Arms Trade 54
Table: Sudan's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 54

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 55

Macroeconomic Forecast 56

Economic Activity I 56

Economic Activity II 58

BMI Methodology 61

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61

Defence Industry 61

Sources 62

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