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Canada Petrochemicals Report 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 60
BMI's Canada petrochemicals report examines how the country's petrochemicals industry is overcoming challenges related to feedstock access and growing global competitiveness. It assesses recent developments and trends in the industry and looks at the enormous potential for growth,
particularly in the under-exploited propylene product chain. It also analyses the role shale gas will play in the rapidly evolving North American petrochemicals market.
Canada's chemicals and resins industry was driven by domestic demand in 2012, with BMI estimating domestic sales growth of 6.0%, while exports rose just 0.5%. Around 75% of chemicals output is exported, with the US accounting for 75% of exports. The Canadian petrochemicals industry is highly sensitive to trends in the US, although the EU market is also prominent. The domestic market accounted for 80% of the growth in chemicals industry sales. While exports were back to near their pre-crisis 2007 peak and plateauing in 2012, domestic sales remained 25% below their previous peak and growth will need to strengthen in the near term to assist with a return to full operating rates.
Growth rates in chemicals and plastics gradually declined throughout 2011 and 2012 as the industry was affected by recessionary forces in Europe and increased US supply.
BMI makes the following forecasts and observations:
- In 2013, the industry will have to overcome feedstock cost challenges, a stronger Canadian dollar and higher labour and electricity costs.
- Canada's chemistry industry could attract close to US$5bn in new investment over the next decade, according to estimates by the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC). If secured, the chemicals industry could lead economic growth and stimulate activity in petrochemicals consuming industries.
- Exploitation of non-conventional resources will therefore be pivotal to the industry's success.
Shale gas exploitation is a game-changer for the Canadian petrochemicals industry with increased ethane feedstock, both from domestic supplies and via pipeline from the US,
providing the basis for sustaining and expanding olefins production going forward.
- Canada is witnessing a rise in propane supplies due to a decline in exports to the US as a result of shale gas output. Alongside rising oil-sands production in Alberta, propane availability opens up the possibility of the development of propylene and propylene derivative plants.
- In BMI's Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) Canada remains in second place, with its score increasing 1.1 points to 77.7 points due to an improvement in its country risk component. This puts it comfortably 15.1 points ahead of Brazil and 8.4 points behind the US.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Canada Petrochemicals SWOT 7
Canada Political SWOT 8
Canada Economic SWOT 8
Global Petrochemicals Overview 9
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 13
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 14
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 18
Market Overview 23
Table: Canada Olefins Facilities 24
Table: Canada Polyolefins Facilities 24
Table: Canada Aromatics and Derivatives Facilities 25
Industry Trends And Developments 26
Shale gas 26
Feedstock boost 27
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Americas Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 32
Canada Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Table: Canada Petrochemicals Forecasts, 2010-2017 38
Macroeconomic Forecast 39
Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016 42
Competitive Landscape 43
Company Profiles 44
Nova Chemicals 44
Table: Nova Chemicals Highlights (US$mn) 46
Glossary of Terms 50
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 50
Country Snapshot 51
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 52
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 53
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 54
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 54
BMI Methodology 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 55
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 56
Cross Checks 57
Business Environment Ratings 57
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 59