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France Petrochemicals Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 56
The France petrochemicals report examines recent trends in the petrochemicals industry and end-markets and assesses the prospects for growth in 2013 following a year of zero growth in 2012. The report looks at the competitiveness of the French petrochemicals industry, both at home and abroad, and the potential for domestic producers to manufacture products that can compete with foreign imports. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies employed by leading producers in France as they seek to cut costs and improve the integration of refining and downstream units.
The domestic market is weighing heavily on the industry's performance, affected in large part by the European sovereign debt crisis. BMI does not believe there is sufficient overall domestic growth to support a full recovery in the petrochemicals industry in the short-term. The prolonged downturn will prevent a return to pre-recession operating rates and by the time the market recovers, old, inefficient and smaller capacities are likely to have been taken offline. As such, French chemicals producers are increasingly looking beyond the eurozone, in particular to the US, Japan and emerging markets.
In 2012, BMI estimates that France had olefins production capacities of 3.14mn tpa ethylene, 2.13mn tpa propylene and 445,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities included 1.44mn tpa polypropylene (PP),
1.22mn tpa low density polyethylene (LDPE), 705,000tpa high density polyethylene (HDPE), 560,000tpa linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), 1.39mn tpa polyvinyl chloride (PVC), 330,000tpa polystyrene
(PS) and 70,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate (PET). In the fertiliser segment, France has capacities of 1.58mn tpa ammonia and 785,000tpa urea. France also had styrene butadiene rubber capacity of 160,000tpa.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- With the eurozone sovereign debt crisis weighing heavily on the sector and undermining growth in both external and domestic markets, BMI does not envisage any rapid return to pre-crisis levels in the near future.
- Trends in the French basic chemicals, plastics and rubber index suggest that the petrochemicals industry is likely to report zero growth for 2012, in line with BMI's previous forecasts.
- In order to sustain production, French petrochemicals producers will have to ramp up research and development, improve their products' value-added aspects and exploit niche and speciality markets.
- France scores 73.5 points in BMI's Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Rewards Ratings (RRRs),
unchanged since the previous quarter. Nevertheless, France falls from second to third place as it is over-taken by the Netherlands, which saw its country risk rating rise as its petrochemicalsspecific ratings improved. As a result, France sits 0.3 points behind the Netherlands and 1.0 point ahead of Belgium.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
France Petrochemicals SWOT 7
France Political SWOT 8
France Economic SWOT 8
France Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview 10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 15
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 19
European Petrochemicals Overview 24
France Market Overview 28
Industry Trends And Developments 29
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Western Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: West Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 33
France's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Table: Chemical Industry - Percentage Changes In Output Volume, 2008-2011 36
Table: France's Chemicals And Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 36
Macroeconomic Outlook 38
Table: France - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 41
Company Profiles 42
Glossary Of Terms 47
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 47
Country Snapshot 48
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 49
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 50
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 51
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 51
BMI Methodology 52
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 52
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 52
Cross Checks 53
Business Environment Ratings 54
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 55