Gabon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2372999
- January 2013
- Region: Gabon
- 34 pages
- Business Monitor International
The recent announcement that Gabon's National Drug Office budget for 2012 would be almost doubled compared with 2011 will be welcomed by pharmaceutical companies. However, we note that the absolute funding is still very low and the vast majority of expenditure will be on low-margin essential medicines. Due to tepid economic growth, our outlook for Gabon's pharmaceutical market is below that expected to be posted by many of its sub-Saharan Africa neighbours.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts:
- Pharmaceuticals: XAF63.8bn (US$135mn) in 2011 to XAF68.4bn (US$132mn) in 2012;
+7.2% in local currency and -1.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast very slightly up in US dollar terms compared with Q312.
- Healthcare: XAF256bn (US$541mn) in 2011 to XAF284bn (US$551mn) in 2012; +11.2% in local currency and +1.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast very slightly up in US dollar terms compared with Q312.
- Medical Devices: XAF11.1bn (US$24mn) in 2011 to XAF12.1bn (US$23mn) in 2012; +8.9
%in local currency and -0.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast very slightly up in US dollar terms compared with Q312.
Gabon's RRR score, which measures the attractiveness of a pharmaceutical market, for Q113 is 40.2 out of 100. This is unchanged compared with the previous quarter. Gabon scores below the regional average for all of the four major components of the proprietary rankings system,
except Country Rewards. This particular indicator assesses urbanisation, population growth and the percentage of the population aged over 65 years.
Key Trends And Developments
- In October 2012, it emerged that XAF2.7bn (US$5.3mn) had been awarded to the National Drug Office for the purchase of pharmaceuticals, which would be distributed free-of-charge at public healthcare facilities. The amount given to the agency represented a significant increase compared with the XAF1.3bn (US$2.5mn) budgeted in 2011. It is anticipated that the National Drug Office would receive XAF3bn (US$5.8mn) for medicines in the 2013 financial year.
- In October 2012, the government of Gabon stated that it purchases antiretrovirals (ARVs)
through the National Drug Office, which itself buys them from World Health Organization
(WHO)-accredited pharmaceutical companies. This statement followed allegations that substandard HIV/AIDS medications were circulating in Gabon. More than XFA2bn (US$3.9mn) is spent on ARVs in Gabon each year.
- In October 2012, the Société des Cigarettes du Gabon (SOCIGA) donated XAF8mn
(US$15,000) to the non-government organisation (NGO) Malachi Pepecy Ogoulinguende to reduce the burden of malaria. According to the WHO, between 31% and 71% of the population of Gabon is infected with the mosquito-borne illness.
BMI Economic View:
Oil has made Gabon one of the richest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa on a per capita basis, but declining production now threatens the country's economic future. Like neighbouring Equatorial Guinea, Gabon has only a few years to develop alternate industries and avoid economic stagnation. While President Ali Bongo's dedication to economic diversification is admirable,
BMI believes that structural factors will make developing the country's non-oil economy difficult and we doubt that any industries will replace declining oil production over the medium term.
BMI Political View:
Opposition leader and former presidential candidate André Mba Obame's dramatic return to Gabon will raise tensions in the politically repressive oil producing state. While we believe that the Gabonese regime has the resources and elite cohesiveness to retain its grip on power, a more active opposition could see protests increase over the medium term. We believe the government would respond to this with a combination of police repression and higher social spending, putting pressure on the budget. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 7
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Q113 7
Market Overview 10
Regulatory Regime 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 13
Overall Market Forecast 13
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 14
Key Growth Factors - Industry 15
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 17
Table: Governmental Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 18
Recent Market Developments 21
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic 22
Table: Economic Activity 23
Demographic Outlook 24
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 25
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 25
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 26
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 27
BMI Methodology 30
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 30
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 31
Ratings Overview 31
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 31
Table: Weighting Of Components 33