Germany Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 90
BMI View:
For a country keen to wean itself off of fossil fuels, the decision to phase out nuclear energy represents a fresh and unwelcome challenge. Gas consumption seems certain to grow more quickly as demand for power rises - until the energy void can be filled through the expansion of renewable sources.
Refining capacity is being scaled back to disappointing returns, so Germany needs to reduce its consumption of oil products in order to avoid becoming overly dependent on costly imports. The country's considerable shale gas potential may never result in large-scale production thanks to environmental resistance.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Germany's Oil and Gas sector are:
- A group led by Macquarie Group in May 2012 agreed to pay EUR3.2bn to German utility E.ON for a network of natural-gas pipelines in Germany. The price for Open Grid Europe,
Germany's biggest gas transmission system, includes adjustments for pensions and other assets,
EON said in a statement. The buyers include German reinsurer Munich Re, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and British Columbia Investment Management, EON said.
- The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) issued a report which has upgraded Germany's shale gas potential to an estimated 6,800-22,600bn cubic metres (bcm) of reserves. The findings may have little impact on the parliamentary committee currently studying Germany's shale gas potential. The body is expected to report its findings before the end of 2012.
The controversial hydraulic fracturing (fraccing) process has been in use in Germany at low levels since the 1990s, but increased public scrutiny has increased uncertainty over prospects for any large-scale effort to develop unconventional gas resources.
- US oil major ExxonMobil is to press ahead with the search for shale gas in Germany, and will also continue to launch conventional gas production initiatives, according to the company's head of Central European operations, Gernot Kalkoffen. This is despite doubts over the environmental impact of fraccing.
- The European Commission in August 2012 approved regulatory clearance for Gunvor Group's acquisition of the assets of the Petroplus refinery in Ingolstadt and related German marketing activities. The 100,000b/d plant is one of the best-performing European refineries, according to Gunvor, with a strong regional footprint in Germany's Bavaria region. Gunvor already trades the crude oils processed by the Ingolstadt refinery, it said, enabling greater efficiencies for the plant.
Gunvor at the end of August restarted operations at the plant, following a seven-month suspension during the sale process.
- Royal Dutch Shell is to close its Harburg refinery following a fruitless search for a buyer. It will convert the main part of the facility into a fuels terminal. The base oil plant at the site is being disassociated and sold to Nynas under a deal agreed in December 2011.
- Gas consumption now represents 23% of primary energy demand (PED), accounting for 11% of power generation. Its share of the power market is rising fast and gas demand should rise. Our forecast is for demand to rise from an estimated 97.9bcm in 2012 to 113.0bcm by 2016, then reaching 135bcm by 2021. Germany's gas production is forecast to fall from around 12.0bcm in 2012 to no more than 9.0bcm over the period, unless shale gas drilling activity is stepped up and delivers early results. End-period gas imports are currently forecast at 126bcm.
- The recent decision to eliminate nuclear power generation raises questions with regard to medium-term hydrocarbons use, with both oil and gas likely to have a larger-than-expected share of overall energy demand and power generation. BMI is assuming that oil consumption of 2.40mn b/d in 2012 will rise to 2.49mn b/d in 2016 and to 2.60mn b/d by 2021, requiring net imports of 2.51mn b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Crude imports will cost the government some US$81.0bn in 2016, compared with an estimated US$88.6bn in 2012. The cost of gas imports by 2016 is estimated at US$47.3bn, taking the total for combined crude oil and natural gas import costs to US$128.3bn. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.10/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$93.25 and US$91.50/bbl respectively.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Germany Oil & Gas SWOT 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Oil And Gas Reserves 8
Table: Germany Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 8
Table: Germany Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 9
Oil Supply And Demand 11
Table: Germany Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 11
Table: Germany Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 12
Gas Supply And Demand 14
Table: Germany Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 14
Table: Germany Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 15
LNG 17
Refining And Oil Products Trade 18
Table: Germany Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 18
Table: Germany Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021 19
Revenues/Import Costs 20
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 20
Country Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Germany Upstream Rating - Overview 21
Germany Upstream Rating - Rewards 21
Germany Upstream Rating - Risks 21
Germany Downstream Rating - Overview 21
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 22
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 26
Germany Energy Market Overview 28
Overview/State Role 29
Licensing/Regulation 29
Government Policy 31
International Energy Relations 31
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 32
Oil Refineries 32
Table: Refineries In Germany 33
Service Stations 36
Oil Pipelines 36
Oil Terminals 36
Oil Storage 37
Gas Pipelines 37
Gas Storage 40
LNG Terminals 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Executive Summary 42
Table: Key Players - German Oil And Gas Sector 43
Table: Key Upstream Players 44
Table: Key Downstream Players 44
Company Profiles 45
Royal Dutch Shell 45
BP 47
Total 49
ExxonMobil 51
PKN Orlen 53
OMV 55
Gazprom - Summary 57
Rhein Petroleum - Summary 57
RWE - Summary 57
E N - Summary 58
Wintershall - Summary 59
Others - Summary 60
Regional Energy Market Outlook 61
Global Energy Market Outlook 68
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 70
Western Europe - Regional Appendix 74
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 74
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 74
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 75
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 75
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 76
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 76
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 77
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 78
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 78
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 79
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 79
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 80
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 81
Glossary Of Terms 82
Table: Glossary Of Terms 82
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 84
Ratings Overview 84
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure 85
Indicators 85
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology 85
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 86
BMI Methodology 88
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 88
Energy Industry 88
Cross checks 89
Sources 89
Company Profiles
Royal Dutch Shell
BP
Total
ExxonMobil
PKN Orlen
OMV
Gazprom - Summary
Rhein Petroleum - Summary
RWE - Summary
E.ON - Summary
Wintershall - Summary
Others - Summary
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