Cumene Industry Outlook in Germany to 2016 - Market Size, Company Share, Price Trends, Capacity Forecasts of All Active and Planned Plants
- Published: January 2012
- Region: Germany
BMI's Germany petrochemicals report looks at current trends in output and sales in the industry,
examining the divergence between domestic, EU and external markets. This report also looks at how German producers will achieve growth in the future - perhaps by focusing on value-added segments such as speciality chemicals - even at a time when basic chemicals production is surging in emerging markets at the expense of the industries in developed states.
Increased exports to countries outside Europe were insufficient to boost overall output in 2012, which shrank by an estimated 3.5% according to BMI estimates, a revision of the 2.5% contraction previously forecast. The most successful chemicals sectors in 2012 were inorganic and speciality chemicals.
Petrochemical-based production suffered declines in polymers, petrochemicals and derivatives. Olefins contract prices rose throughout H112, recovering much of the ground lost in H211, largely as a result of increases in naphtha prices. However, the depreciation of the euro helped support ex-EU sales,
particularly in Latin America where German export sales surged.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Germany scores 81.4 points and is placed first in BMI's Western European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), 7.6 points ahead of the Netherlands. BMI believes that Germany's score is unlikely to change dramatically, with no major basic petrochemicals capacity additions planned. However, with little new capacity coming onstream elsewhere in Western Europe over the forecast period, the country should retain its lead in the region.
- BMI anticipates production growth of 2-3% in 2013 with the industry's long-term prospects looking promising on the back of expected growth in the automotives, mechanical engineering and electronics industries.
- BMI does not see any significant improvement in either the European or German markets over 2013, but the industry's high level of value added, sophistication and diversification ensure that chemicals producers based in Germany will continue to offset their sales losses with export growth outside Europe.
- Production growth is set to continue at 2.0-2.5% per annum up to 2020, although in terms of value it should rise at a faster rate.
- Key growth drivers are high-end specification plastics and speciality chemicals. This should, in due course, spur investment into the expansion of existing capacity and increase research and development, with a focus on German operations. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Germany Petrochemicals SWOT 7
Germany Political SWOT 8
Germany Economic SWOT 8
Germany Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview 10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 15
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 19
European Petrochemicals Overview 24
Germany Market Overview 28
Industry Trends And Developments 30
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Western Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: West Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 34
Industry Forecast Scenario 35
Table: Germany's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) 35
Macroeconomic Forecast 39
Table: Germany - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016 41
Company Monitor 42
BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BASF) 42
BP Refining And Petrochemicals GmbH 44
Glossary Of Terms 46
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 46
Country Snapshot 47
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 48
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 49
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 50
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 50
BMI Methodology 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 51
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 51
Cross Checks 52
Business Environment Ratings 53
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 54
BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BASF)
BP Refining And Petrochemicals GmbH