Greece Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2373002
- January 2013
- Region: Greece
- 72 pages
- Business Monitor International
Energy policy is gaining ground on the agenda in terms of the new Greek government's political priorities, in view of growing awareness of the importance of possible prospective resources,
although energy privatisation is a greater immediate concern. Fourteen expressions of interests were registered with TAIPED, the Greek privatization agency, when the Tender Invitation was announced in February 2012, for the state gas industry but only five non-binding bids were submitted by the November deadline, while final submissions to be deposited in December and final selection slated to be announced in Q113. Submission dates for tenders to acquire control of Hellenic Petroleum are to be submitted in Q113, with final selection scheduled to be announced in Q4 2013. Meanwhile, demand trends will be dependent on a sustained economic recovery.
The key trends and developments in the Greek oil & gas sector are:
- Greece had hoped to attract binding bids for state-controlled natural gas supplier Dimosia Epichirisi Paroxis Aeriou (DEPA) and the state controlled network distributer DESPA by the end of September 2012. However, the sale process is still underway with final and binding tender offers to be made in late December and selection announcement in early 2013.
- In November 2012 TAIPED reported that from the original 14 firms that had expressed interest for DEPA and DESFA, only five placed a bid. Russia's Gazprom and Azerbaijan's Socar are the two main contenders for acquisition of DEPA, the other players expressing interest being a small private Russian O&G/energy services conglomerate Sintez (controlled by billionaire Leonid Lebedev) along with a Greek consortium ?&? Gas Co composed of Mytilinaios Group and Motor Oil, partnership GEK - TERNA, a major Greek construction company in a joint bid with Czech investment fund PPF, was the only submission offered for DESFA.
TAIPED through the sales of DEPO, had aimed to receive 300mn euros in 2012 and 11bn euros by 2016. It remains confident that the final and binding December submissions will see more companies and partnership emerging.
- Hellenic Hydrocarbon Resources Management (HHRM), the new upstream government monitoring and management agency instituted under provisions of the new O&G law #4001 of August 2011 is at the final stages of its formation. However, due to the delays brought about by the recent back-to-back elections in the country, a BOD has not yet been appointed and thus HHRM is not yet operational. A provisional Ad Hoc Advisory Committee, composed of academics and ministry officials, has been carrying out some main HHRM tasks. These included the submissions evaluation and final selection of the Multiclient Seismic Survey Tender
(awarded in September to PGS) and similar evaluation and selection processes for the three Open Door Exploration Calls issued early 2012. Final selections are slated to be announced in December.
- Statutory upstream referring and monitoring responsibilities formerly residing with ELPE, were formerly transferred by the government [Ministry of Energy and Climate Change (YPEKA)] to HHRM in early November via an extension and modification a contract was awarded to Kavala Oil-Energean, the only private Greek O&G company engaged in domestic petroleum extraction and production (at the offshore Prinos Field in Northern Greece).
- The Energean extension contract, which allows for prospecting and exploration by the company on other neighbouring offshore fields, is also the first which has delineated the royalty regime which apparently is a precursor governing all future domestic oil production in Greece. This sum will amount to 0% for average gross daily production up to 2,500 barrels (bbl), 3% for amounts between 2,501bbl and 5,000bbl, 6% for production between 5,001bbl and 10,000bbl and 10
%for any production totalling more than 10,000bbl.
- The governments of Greece, Albania and Italy have agreed to support the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The agreement was reached between Greek deputy energy minister Makis Papageorgiou and his Italian counterpart Giulio Terzi, along with their Albanian counterpart via a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in New York during the annual UN General Assembly meetings on August 7 2012. The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Caspian Sea (eventually from the Middle East) via Greece, Albania and Italy to the rest of Europe. The pipeline will contribute to a reduction of Europe's dependence on Russia for natural gas.
- Natural gas consumption, which is expected to amount to 4.6bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012, is likely to continue rising over the medium-to-long term. BMI is forecasting 5.2bcm by 2016 and 6bcm by 2021. The dire state of the economy has slowed growth in gas consumption; however,
infrastructure will still be developed for local use, with new power stations to be gas-fired and the country securing imported increasing amount of gas, including LNG, from various sources.
Therefore, overall we expect natural gas to grow much more robustly than oil consumption over our forecast period, as it is rapidly taken on by various sectors of the economy.
- In 2011, the country imported around 1.3bcm of liquefied natural gas (LNG). There are plans to import gas from Qatar via a new receiving terminal. By 2021, we believe Greece could be importing 4bcm of LNG to help meet its growing demand, especially from the transport sector.
- Although there is scope for medium- to long-term stability in domestic oil production, there is considerable uncertainty over the scale and the timing of any new field development. Beyond the expected energy market weakness in 2012-2013, the country's oil consumption growth is forecast to remain muted (in line with the macroeconomic outlook and loss of competiveness of oil vis-à-vis natural gas) and is expected to reach about 325,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and 334,000b/d by 2021.
- The 2016 oil net import bill is forecast to come in at US$10.8bn, rising slightly to US$10.9bn by the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2021. With gas imports due to cost US$2.39bn in 2016,
rising to US$2.7bn by 2021, the total petroleum import cost in 2016 is forecast at US$13.2bn.
By 2021, the total petroleum import cost is forecast to be US$13.6bn. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.10/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$93.25 and US$91.50/bbl respectively. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 8
Greece Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Oil and Gas Reserves 9
Table: Greece Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 9
Table: Greece Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 10
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Greece Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 12
Table: Greece Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021 13
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Greece Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 15
Table: Greece Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 16
Liquefied Natural Gas 19
Refining And Oil Products Trade 19
Table: Greece Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 19
Table: Greece Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 19
Revenues/Import Costs 20
Country Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Greece Upstream Rating - Overview 21
Greece Upstream Rating - Rewards 21
Greece Upstream Rating - Risks 21
Greece Downstream Rating - Overview 21
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 22
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 26
Greece Energy Market Overview 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 30
Oil Refineries 30
Table: Refineries In Greece 30
Service Stations 30
Oil Storage Facilities 30
Oil Terminals/Ports 30
Oil Pipelines 30
LNG Terminals 31
Gas Storage Terminals 31
Gas Pipelines 31
Competitive Landscape 34
Executive Summary 34
Table: Key Players - Greece Oil And Gas Sector 35
Table: Key Downstream Players 35
Company Monitor 36
Hellenic Petroleum 36
DESFA - Summary 41
Motor Oil (Hellas) - Summary 41
Gas Supply Companies (EPAs) - Summary 41
Energean Oil & Gas - Summary 42
Others - Summary 42
Regional Energy Market Outlook 43
Global Energy Market Outlook 50
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 52
Western Europe - Regional Appendix 56
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 57
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 57
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 60
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 60
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 61
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 61
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 62
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 63
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 64
Ratings Overview 64
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure 65
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology 65
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 66
Glossary Of Terms 68
Table: Glossary Of Terms 68
BMI Methodology 70
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 70
Energy Industry 70
Cross checks 71